Effects of coal prices on merchandise prices in China

Mining Science and Technology (China) Pub Date : 2011-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.mstc.2011.10.008

Ding Zhihua , Zhou Meihua , Liu Yan

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Coal is the principal form of energy used in China. Hence, coal price variations are expected to have some influence on merchandise prices. Monthly data from January, 2002, to October, 2010, were used to construct a varying-parameter state space model, and an error correction model, to estimate the influence of coal prices on Chinese merchandise prices. The time lag and the dynamic relationship were determined from the data. A long term equilibrium relationship between coal price and the PPI, and the CPI, can be observed. The long term influence of coal price fluctuations on the PPI is 0.263%. The corresponding value for the CPI is 0.157%. The PPI shows an influence from coal price change in the first period of observation: by eight periods the influence is obvious, after which it diminishes. The effect of coal price change on the CPI is rather weak and has no long term memory. Analysis of variance shows a similar situation. The elasticity coefficient of coal prices on the CPI, or the PPI, fluctuates over the 2002–2004 period. From 2002 to 2007 the influence elasticity on the CPI declined and subsequently levelled off after 2009.

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煤炭价格对中国商品价格的影响

煤是中国使用的主要能源。因此，煤炭价格的变化预计会对商品价格产生一定的影响。利用2002年1月至2010年10月的月度数据，构建了一个变参数状态空间模型和一个误差修正模型，以估计煤炭价格对中国商品价格的影响。根据数据确定了时滞和动态关系。可以观察到煤炭价格与PPI和CPI之间的长期均衡关系。煤炭价格波动对PPI的长期影响为0.263%。CPI的对应值为0.157%。PPI在第一个观测期内受到煤炭价格变化的影响，到第8个观测期内影响明显，之后逐渐减弱。煤炭价格变动对CPI的影响较弱，且没有长期记忆。方差分析显示了类似的情况。2002年至2004年期间，煤炭价格对消费者价格指数(CPI)的弹性系数波动较大。从2002年到2007年，对CPI的影响弹性下降，随后在2009年之后趋于平稳。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Mining Science and Technology (China)

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