Business cycle asymmetries and non-linearities in U.K. macroeconomic time series

Abstract

This paper empirically tests for and models non-linearities in a selection of U.K. macroeconomic time series. Attention is focused first on business cycle asymmetry, using Markov chain models to investigate whether cycles in macroeconomic time series display symmetric behaviour on both sides of a peak or trough. Next, a selection of statistical tests of non-linearity are employed to investigate formally the presence of departures from the linearity assumption. A variety of specific non-linear models of the business cycle that have been proposed recently are then fitted to ascertain how useful they are in explaining any non-linearities that have been observed in the series. Finally, the results are brought together in an extended discussion of their implications for business cycle research and policy analysis.