COVID-19 Epidemic Forecast in Brazil.

IF 2.3 Q3 BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS Bioinformatics and Biology Insights Pub Date : 2023-04-11 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1177/11779322231161939
Oleg Gaidai, Yihan Xing
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Abstract

This study advocates a novel spatio-temporal method for accurate prediction of COVID-19 epidemic occurrence probability at any time in any Brazil state of interest, and raw clinical observational data have been used. This article describes a novel bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitable for multi-regional environmental and health systems, observed over a sufficient time period, resulting in robust long-term forecast of the virus outbreak probability. COVID-19 daily numbers of recorded patients in all affected Brazil states were taken into account. This work aimed to benchmark novel state-of-the-art methods, making it possible to analyse dynamically observed patient numbers while taking into account relevant regional mapping. Advocated approach may help to monitor and predict possible future epidemic outbreaks within a large variety of multi-regional biological systems. Suggested methodology may be used in various modern public health applications, efficiently using their clinical survey data.

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COVID-19 在巴西的流行预测。
本研究提倡采用一种新颖的时空方法来准确预测 COVID-19 在巴西任何相关州任何时间的流行病发生概率,并使用了原始的临床观察数据。本文介绍了一种新颖的生物系统可靠性方法,尤其适用于多区域环境和卫生系统,通过对足够长的时间段进行观察,可对病毒爆发概率进行长期稳健预测。该方法考虑了 COVID-19 在巴西所有受影响州记录的每日患者人数。这项工作旨在为最先进的新方法设定基准,使分析动态观测到的患者人数成为可能,同时考虑到相关的区域分布图。所提倡的方法有助于监测和预测未来可能在各种多区域生物系统中爆发的流行病。建议的方法可用于各种现代公共卫生应用,有效利用其临床调查数据。
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来源期刊
Bioinformatics and Biology Insights
Bioinformatics and Biology Insights BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS-
CiteScore
6.80
自引率
1.70%
发文量
36
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊介绍: Bioinformatics and Biology Insights is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers articles on bioinformatics methods and their applications which must pertain to biological insights. All papers should be easily amenable to biologists and as such help bridge the gap between theories and applications.
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