Harnessing Demographic Dividend Before it is Lost Forever in India.

Abstract

Based on the secondary data taken from Population Census, and the Employment-Unemployment Surveys and Periodic Labour Force Survey of the National Sample Survey, it is found that Indian economy is passing through a critical phase of economic development in which it is likely to lose its demographic advantage. Because, in India while about 4.5 million people were leaving agriculture every year prior to the Covid-19 pandemic years, the non-farm sectors job was not growing adequately to accommodate the persons leaving agriculture, and the newly educated non-farm job seekers. As a result there was an upsurge in educated youth unemployment (18% and about 24 million) rate, and hence the discouraged youth labour force. On the other hand, an increase in the share (from 8.0 to 10.2%) and growth (3.0-5.1%) of elderly population put a question on the process of harnessing demographic dividend in India. Based on these findings it is argued that an integrated approach of development is necessary to boost the labour force participation of youth and overall population to boost the growth of per capita national state domestic product (NSDP) in Indian states. This could be achieved through the promotion of micro and small enterprises along with infrastructure development along with a systematic emigration and remittances policy.