Regression Discontinuity for Binary Response and Local Maximum Likelihood Estimator to Extrapolate Treatment.

IF 3 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Evaluation Review Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI:10.1177/0193841X221105968
Goeun Lee, Myoung-Jae Lee
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Regression discontinuity is popular in finding treatment/policy effects when the treatment is determined by a continuous variable crossing a cutoff. Typically, a local linear regression (LLR) estimator is used to find the effects. For binary response, however, LLR is not suitable in extrapolating the treatment, as in doubling/tripling the treatment dose/intensity. The reason is that doubling/tripling the LLR estimate can give a number out of the bound [-1, 1], despite that the effect should be a change in probability. We propose local maximum likelihood estimators which overcome these shortcomings, while giving almost the same estimates as the LLR estimator does for the original treatment. A simulation study and an empirical analysis for effects of an income subsidy program on religion demonstrate these points.

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二元响应的回归不连续及外推处理的局部极大似然估计。
当处理是由一个连续变量跨越一个截止点来决定时,在寻找治疗/政策效果时,回归不连续是很流行的。通常,使用局部线性回归(LLR)估计器来发现影响。然而,对于二元反应,LLR不适用于外推治疗,如加倍/三倍治疗剂量/强度。原因是,将LLR估计值加倍/三倍可能会给出一个超出界限[- 1,1]的数字,尽管其效果应该是概率的变化。我们提出了克服这些缺点的局部极大似然估计,同时给出了与原始处理的LLR估计几乎相同的估计。一项收入补贴计划对宗教影响的模拟研究和实证分析证明了这些观点。
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来源期刊
Evaluation Review
Evaluation Review SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
11.10%
发文量
80
期刊介绍: Evaluation Review is the forum for researchers, planners, and policy makers engaged in the development, implementation, and utilization of studies aimed at the betterment of the human condition. The Editors invite submission of papers reporting the findings of evaluation studies in such fields as child development, health, education, income security, manpower, mental health, criminal justice, and the physical and social environments. In addition, Evaluation Review will contain articles on methodological developments, discussions of the state of the art, and commentaries on issues related to the application of research results. Special features will include periodic review essays, "research briefs", and "craft reports".
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