Comparison of the capture-recapture method and seroprevalence survey for estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

IF 1.7 4区医学 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal Pub Date : 2023-02-26 DOI:10.26719/emhj.23.010

Ali Davoudi Kiakalayeh, Morteza Rahbar Taramsari, Reza Mohammadi, Sajad Davoudi Kiakalayeh, Hassan Kavakpour

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Abstract

Background: Reliable estimation of prevalence is important for monitoring and evaluation of COVID-19 prevention programmes among at-risk populations.

Aims: We compared the capture-recapture method with a seroprevalence survey for accurate estimation of the prevalence of COVID-19 during a 1-year period in Guilan Province, northern Islamic Republic of Iran.

Methods: We used the capture-recapture method to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19. Records from the primary care registry system and the Medical Care Monitoring Center were compared, using 4 matching approaches based on combinations of the following variables: name, age, gender, date of death, positive or negative cases, and alive or dead cases.

Results: The estimated prevalence of COVID-19 in the study population from the beginning of the pandemic in February 2020 until the end of January 2021 was 16.2-19.8%, depending on the matching approach used, which was lower than in previous studies.

Conclusion: The capture-recapture method may provide better accuracy than seroprevalence surveys in measuring the prevalence of COVID-19. This method may also reduce the bias in the estimation of prevalence and correct the misconception of policymakers about seroprevalence survey results.

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捕获-再捕获法与血清患病率调查在伊朗伊斯兰共和国估算COVID-19流行率的比较

背景:可靠的流行率估计对于监测和评估高危人群的COVID-19预防规划非常重要。目的:我们将捕获-再捕获法与血清患病率调查进行比较，以准确估计伊朗伊斯兰共和国北部桂兰省1年期间的COVID-19流行情况。方法:采用捕获-再捕获法估计COVID-19的流行情况。基于姓名、年龄、性别、死亡日期、阳性或阴性病例、存活或死亡病例等变量的组合，采用4种匹配方法对来自基层医疗登记系统和医疗监护中心的记录进行比较。结果:根据使用的匹配方法，从2020年2月大流行开始到2021年1月底，研究人群中COVID-19的估计患病率为16.2-19.8%，低于以往的研究。结论:捕获-再捕获法测量COVID-19流行率的准确性优于血清流行率调查。该方法还可以减少患病率估计的偏差，纠正决策者对血清患病率调查结果的误解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICESPUBLIC, ENV-PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

4.80%

发文量

112

期刊介绍： The Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, established in 1995, is the flagship health periodical of the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean. The mission of the Journal is to contribute to improving health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region by publishing and publicising quality health research and information with emphasis on public health and the strategic health priorities of the Region. It aims to: further public health knowledge, policy, practice and education; support health policy-makers, researchers and practitioners; and enable health professionals to remain informed of developments in public health. The EMHJ: -publishes original peer-reviewed research and reviews in all areas of public health of relevance to the Eastern Mediterranean Region -encourages, in particular, research related to the regional health priorities, namely: health systems strengthening; emergency preparedness and response; communicable diseases; noncommunicable diseases and mental health; reproductive, maternal, child health and nutrition -provides up-to-date information on public health developments with special reference to the Region. The Journal addresses all members of the health profession, health educational institutes, as well as governmental and nongovernmental organizations in the area of public health within and outside the Region.