The levels and trends of diabetes prevalence at national and sub-national levels in Iran (1990 - 2016).

IF 1.8 Q4 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM Journal of Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Pub Date : 2023-03-02 eCollection Date: 2023-06-01 DOI:10.1007/s40200-023-01197-2

Niloofar Peykari, Parinaz Mehdipour, Bagher Larijani, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Shirin Djalalinia, Amir Kasaeian, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Alireza Ahmadvand, Ardeshir Khosravi, Reza Malekzadeh, Farshad Farzadfar

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Abstract

Background: The increasing trends in Diabetes prevalence and its attributed burden emphasized as an important issue that needs serious and urgent attention, all over the word. We estimated the mean Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG) and the prevalence of Diabetes in aged 25 years or older Iranian adults, by sex, age, province, and year through the time period of 1990 to 2016.

Methods: In order to access the most comprehensive relevant data at the same time the systematic data searched added to the data of 5 national surveys and 7 sub-national population based investigations. Two round of modeling, including the Age-Spatio-Temporal and Gaussian Process Regression were used for estimation of mean FPG trend and uncertainties. To estimate Diabetes estimations in target groups, a crosswalk model was applies to the FPG estimates. The model reiterated separately for women and men. All of estimations standardized based on the Iran national census population of 2016 by year, age groups and sexes at national and sub-national levels.

Results: In 2016, the number of the diabetic population was 4.43 (3.93-4.99) million (2.38 million women). Between 1990 and 2016, the age-standardized mean of FPG increased from 84.69 mg/dl (79.8-89.8) to 100.5 mg/dl (97.9-103.3) in women and from 82.7 mg/dl (78.3-87.5) to 98.8 mg/dl (96.2-101.4) in men. Simultaneously, with considerable difference, the Diabetes prevalence, has increased from 6.1% (4.7-7.8) to 9.8% (8.7-11.1) in women and from 5.0% 18 (3.8-6.3) to 8.1% (7.2-9.2) in men (75% attributed to population growth). Considering the geographical patterns, the greatest increment in the prevalence of Diabetes detected in the northwestern and the central provinces.

Conclusion: Significant increasing trends of Diabetes led to alarming threat, which can make the strategies and goals of our prevention programs out of control. We should plan for more effective communicative interventions for prevention and management of Diabetes, to be designed, implemented and monitored based on the updated scientific evidence.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-023-01197-2.

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伊朗国家和地方各级糖尿病患病率的水平和趋势（1990-2016）。

背景：糖尿病患病率的上升趋势及其造成的负担被全世界强调为一个需要认真和紧迫关注的重要问题。我们估计了25岁或以上伊朗成年人的平均空腹血糖（FPG）和糖尿病患病率，按性别、年龄、省份、，方法：为了同时获得最全面的相关数据，将检索到的系统数据添加到5项全国调查和7项次全国人口调查的数据中。两轮建模，包括年龄时空回归和高斯过程回归，用于估计平均FPG趋势和不确定性。为了估计目标人群的糖尿病估计，将人行横道模型应用于FPG估计。该模式分别为女性和男性重申。所有估计都是基于2016年伊朗全国人口普查，按国家和地方各级的年份、年龄组和性别进行标准化的。结果：2016年，糖尿病人口为443万（3.93-4.99）人（女性238万）。1990年至2016年间，女性FPG的年龄标准化平均值从84.69 mg/dl（79.8-89.8）增加到100.5 mg/dl（97.9-103.3），男性从82.7 mg/dl（78.3-87.5）增加到98.8 mg/dl（96.2-101.4）。同时，有相当大差异的是，糖尿病患病率在女性中从6.1%（4.7-7.8）增加到9.8%（8.7-11.1），在男性中从5.0%18（3.8-6.3）增加到8.1%（7.2-9.2）（75%归因于人口增长）。考虑到地理格局，西北和中部省份的糖尿病患病率增幅最大。结论：糖尿病的显著增长趋势导致了令人担忧的威胁，这可能会使我们的预防计划的策略和目标失控。我们应该根据最新的科学证据设计、实施和监测更有效的糖尿病预防和管理沟通干预措施。补充信息：在线版本包含补充材料，网址为10.1007/s40200-023-01197-2。

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来源期刊

Journal of Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Medicine-Internal Medicine

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

3.60%

发文量

210

期刊介绍： Journal of Diabetes & Metabolic Disorders is a peer reviewed journal which publishes original clinical and translational articles and reviews in the field of endocrinology and provides a forum of debate of the highest quality on these issues. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to, diabetes, lipid disorders, metabolic disorders, osteoporosis, interdisciplinary practices in endocrinology, cardiovascular and metabolic risk, aging research, obesity, traditional medicine, pychosomatic research, behavioral medicine, ethics and evidence-based practices.As of Jan 2018 the journal is published by Springer as a hybrid journal with no article processing charges. All articles published before 2018 are available free of charge on springerlink.Unofficial 2017 2-year Impact Factor: 1.816.