Development and validation of a novel model to predict liver-related mortality in patients with idiosyncratic drug-induced liver injury

Abstract

Background

Early identification of patients with high mortality risk is critical for optimizing the clinical management of drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We aimed to develop and validate a new prognostic model to predict death within 6 months in DILI patients.

Methods

This multicenter study retrospectively reviewed the medical records of DILI patients admitted to three hospitals. A DILI mortality predictive score was developed using multivariate logistic regression and was validated with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A high-mortality-risk subgroup was identified according to the score.

Results

Three independent DILI cohorts, including one derivation cohort (n = 741) and two validation cohorts (n = 650, n = 617) were recruited. The DILI mortality predictive (DMP) score was calculated using parameters at disease onset as follows: 1.913 × international normalized ratio + 0.060 × total bilirubin (mg/dL) + 0.439 × aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase – 1.579 × albumin (g/dL) – 0.006 × platelet count (10⁹/L) + 9.662. The predictive performance for 6-month mortality of DMP score was desirable, with an AUC of 0.941 (95% CI: 0.922-0.957), 0.931 (0.908-0.949) and 0.960 (0.942-0.974) in the derivation, validation cohorts 1 and 2, respectively. DILI patients with a DMP score ≥ 8.5 were stratified into high-risk group, whose mortality rates were 23-, 36-, and 45-fold higher than those of other patients in the three cohorts.

Conclusions

The novel model based on common laboratory findings can accurately predict mortality within 6 months in DILI patients, which should serve as an effective guidance for management of DILI in clinical practice.