Offshoring or reshoring: the impact of tax regulations on operations strategies

Abstract

After decades of outsourcing to low-cost countries, companies are restructuring their production footprint globally. Especially having experienced supply chain disruption caused by the unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic for the past several years, many multinational companies are considering bringing their operations back home (i.e., reshoring). At the same time, the U.S. government proposes using tax penalties to motivate companies to reshore. In this paper, we study how a global supply chain adjusts its offshoring and reshoring production decisions under two different circumstances: (1) under traditional corporate tax regulations; (2) under the proposed tax penalty regulations. We analyze cost variants, tax structures, market access and production risks to identify conditions where global companies decide to bring manufacturing back to their domestic countries. Our results show that multinational companies would be more likely to relocate the production from the main foreign country to an alternative country that enjoys even lower production costs under the proposed tax penalty. As identified by our analysis and as well as numerical simulations, reshoring can only occur in rare situations such as when the production costs in the foreign countries are close to that in the domestic country. Besides potential national tax reform, we also discuss the impact of the Global Minimum Tax Rate proposed by the G7 on global companies’ offshoring/reshoring decisions.