Risk of Sports-associated Long-range Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

Q3 Medicine Tokai Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-20

Hiroyuki Furuya

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: The worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its variants remains a health threat. As sports event-related outbreaks due to long-range airborne transmission in ventilation have been reported, the present study aimed to quantify infection risk using available data and apply the results to an outbreak in an ice hockey arena.

Methods: A mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the risk of airborne infection.

Results: A quantum was defined as the dose of airborne droplet nuclei required to cause infection in 63% of susceptible persons. The estimated quanta emission rate per infector showed a log-normal distribution with a geometric mean (GM) of 28.81, geometric deviation (GD) of 5.78, and median of 22.65 quanta/h. The estimated average time-average quanta concentration (C_avg; quanta/m³) showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 0.08, GD of 5.80, and median of 0.06. The outdoor ventilation rate per infected person for the scenario showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 710.96, GD of 6.22, and median of 169.17 m³/h. A higher C_avg value indicated exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to the lower ventilation rate in the a rena a nd the large expiratory volume of athletes caused by intensive exercise.

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运动相关的SARS-CoV-2远程空气传播风险:数学模型研究

目的:由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2)及其变异引起的全球大流行仍对健康构成威胁。由于已经报道了由于通风中的远程空气传播而导致的与体育赛事相关的暴发，本研究旨在利用现有数据量化感染风险，并将结果应用于冰球赛场的暴发。方法:采用数学建模方法估算空气传播感染风险。结果:在63%的易感人群中，空气飞沫核引起感染所需的剂量被定义为一个量。每个感染者的量子发射率呈对数正态分布，几何平均值(GM)为28.81，几何偏差(GD)为5.78，中位数为22.65量子/h。估计的平均时间-平均量子浓度(Cavg;quanta/m3)呈对数正态分布，GM为0.08,GD为5.80，中位数为0.06。该情景下人均室外通风量呈对数正态分布，GM为710.96,GD为6.22，中位数为169.17 m3/h。较高的Cavg值表明运动员由于高强度运动导致的低通气率和大呼气量而暴露于SARS-CoV-2。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Tokai Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine Medicine-Medicine (all)

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Tokai Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine, also referred to as Tokai Journal, is an official quarterly publication of the Tokai Medical Association. Tokai Journal publishes original articles that deal with issues of clinical, experimental, socioeconomic, cultural and/or historical importance to medical science and related fields. Manuscripts may be submitted as full-length Original Articles or Brief Communications. Tokai Journal also publishes reviews and symposium proceedings. Articles accepted for publication in Tokai Journal cannot be reproduced elsewhere without written permission from the Tokai Medical Association. In addition, Tokai Journal will not be held responsible for the opinions of the authors expressed in the published articles.