Does climate change affect the transmission of COVID-19? A Bayesian regression analysis.

Abstract

Aim: Coronavirus is an airborne and infectious disease and it is crucial to check the impact of climatic risk factors on the transmission of COVID-19. The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of climate risk factors using Bayesian regression analysis.

Methods: Coronavirus disease 2019, due to the effect of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has become a serious global public health issue. This disease was identified in Bangladesh on March 8, 2020, though it was initially identified in Wuhan, China. This disease is rapidly transmitted in Bangladesh due to the high population density and complex health policy setting. To meet our goal, The MCMC with Gibbs sampling is used to draw Bayesian inference, which is implemented in WinBUGS software.

Results: The study revealed that high temperatures reduce confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19, but low temperatures increase confirmed cases and deaths. High temperatures have decreased the proliferation of COVID-19, reducing the virus's survival and transmission.

Conclusions: Considering only the existing scientific evidence, warm and wet climates seem to reduce the spread of COVID-19. However, more climate variables could account for explaining most of the variability in infectious disease transmission.