Examining the Influence of Fertility Policy Adjustments on Gender Equality in China During the Period of Exceptionally Slow Population Growth.

Abstract

The Chinese population is entering a new stage of development, marked by the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age continuing to decline and concerns over their consistently low fertility rates. The number of newborns has been decreasing annually, with 2022 figures falling below 10 million for the first time since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, resulting in negative population growth (1). Currently, China’s population over the age of 60 years is nearing 300 million and is projected to surpass 20% of the total population during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Furthermore, the working-age population, estimated at 900 million in 2018, is expected to decline to approximately 830 million in 2030 and 700 million in 2050 (2). In response to the new stage of population development in China, adjusting fertility policy has become a priority to stabilize fertility levels, alleviate the pressure of aging, and promote supply-side reforms in population and labor fields. On November 15, 2013, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China launched a restricted two-child policy, marking the relaxation of the Chinese government’s long-standing family planning policy, which was primarily focused on population control (3). On January 1, 2016, the Fifth Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China formally implemented the “universal two-child policy,” signaling a shift in China’s family planning policy from controlling population size to encouraging fertility intention and improving population quality (4). On May 31, 2021, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held a meeting to further optimize the fertility policy. This policy stipulates that a couple can have three children and outlines supporting measures, signifying the ongoing comprehensive adjustment and transformation of China’s fertility policy (5). Several scholars and practitioners have expressed concern about the potential impact of modifications to fertility policies on gender equality, as well as addressing the quantitative, structural, and qualitative challenges faced by population development. However, the underlying mechanisms of these challenges have not been sufficiently explored. In this study, we introduce the Dualistic Theory of Career-Family Life Cycle, examine the consequences of adjusting fertility policies on gender equality, and contend that the subsequent pressure will influence women’s careers and families. This change may raise women’s career thresholds, weaken women’s career persistence, and exacerbate women’s work-family conflicts. As a result, challenges to gender equality in China might arise, which could hinder the implementation of a threechild fertility policy.