Does Widespread Use of Hydroxychloroquine Reduce the Transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19? An Ecological Correlational Study.

Q3 Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics Infectious disorders drug targets Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI:10.2174/1871526523666230522114836
Fabricio Souza Neves
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Abstract

Background: At the beginning of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) was widely used as a possible antiviral agent. Current knowledge indicates that HCQ has little or no effect on individual clinical outcomes of COVID-19, but populational effects on disease transmissibility are still unknown.

Objective: This study investigates the hypothesis that massive HCQ consumption by a population may contribute to reducing the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 spread by reducing the viral load of infected individuals.

Methods: Public database of seven states from Brazil in 2020 were assessed, before the start of COVID-19 vaccination. The daily values of the COVID-19 effective reproduction number (Rt) were obtained. Associations between Rt values and the proposed predictor variables (prevalence of COVID-19 as a marker of collective immunity; social isolation indices; consumption of HCQ) were tested using multiple linear regression analysis.

Results: In all seven states, consumption of HCQ was a significant negative predictor of Rt (β ranged from -0.295 to -0.502, p = 0.001). Furthermore, the mean derivative of Rt during the declining period of the COVID-19 incidence (the mean rate of variation) was also significantly negatively related to the mean HCQ consumption in that period (R2 = 0.895; β = -0.783; p = 0.011), meaning that the higher the HCQ consumption, the faster the decline of COVID-19 Rt. It suggests a dose-response phenomenon and a causal relationship in this association.

Conclusion: The results of this study are compatible with the hypothesis that HCQ has small but significant in vivo antiviral effects that are able to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility at the populational level.

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羟氯喹的广泛使用是否会降低SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19的传播力?生态学相关研究。
背景:在新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行之初,羟氯喹(HCQ)作为一种可能的抗病毒药物被广泛使用。目前的知识表明,HCQ对COVID-19个体临床结局的影响很小或没有影响,但对疾病传播的人群影响仍然未知。目的:本研究探讨人群大量消费HCQ可能通过降低感染者的病毒载量来降低SARS-CoV-2和COVID-19传播的假设。方法:在开始COVID-19疫苗接种之前,对2020年巴西7个州的公共数据库进行评估。获取每日COVID-19有效繁殖数(Rt)。Rt值与提出的预测变量(作为集体免疫标志的COVID-19流行率;社会隔离指数;使用多元线性回归分析检测HCQ的消耗量。结果:在所有7个州,HCQ的消耗是Rt的显著负预测因子(β范围从-0.295到-0.502,p = 0.001)。此外,在COVID-19发病率下降期间,Rt的平均导数(平均变异率)也与该时期的平均HCQ消费量呈显著负相关(R2 = 0.895;β = -0.783;p = 0.011),这意味着HCQ消费量越高,COVID-19 rt下降速度越快。这表明这种关联存在剂量反应现象和因果关系。结论:本研究结果与HCQ具有微小但显著的体内抗病毒作用,能够降低SARS-CoV-2在人群水平上的传播力的假设相一致。
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来源期刊
Infectious disorders drug targets
Infectious disorders drug targets Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics-Pharmacology
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
123
期刊介绍: Infectious Disorders - Drug Targets aims to cover all the latest and outstanding developments on the medicinal chemistry, pharmacology, molecular biology, genomics and biochemistry of contemporary molecular targets involved in infectious disorders e.g. disease specific proteins, receptors, enzymes, genes. Each issue of the journal contains a series of timely in-depth reviews written by leaders in the field covering a range of current topics on drug targets involved in infectious disorders. As the discovery, identification, characterization and validation of novel human drug targets for anti-infective drug discovery continues to grow, this journal will be essential reading for all pharmaceutical scientists involved in drug discovery and development.
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