Short- and long-term mortality following acute medical admission.

Abstract

Background: Short-term in-hospital mortality following acute medical admission has been widely investigated. Longer term mortality, particularly out-of-hospital mortality, has been less well studied.

Aim: The aim of this study is to evaluate short- and long-term mortality, and predictors of such, following acute medical admission.

Design: Retrospective database study.

Methods: We evaluated all acute medical admissions to our institution over 10 years (2002-11) with a minimum of a further 10 years follow-up to 2021 using the Irish National Death Register. Predictors of 30-day in-hospital and long-term mortality were analysed with logistic and Cox regression, with loss of life years estimated.

Results: The 2002-11 cohort consisted of 62 184 admissions in 35 140 patients. 30-Day in hospital mortality (n = 3646) per patient was 10.4% and per admission was 5.9%. There were an additional 11 440 longer-term deaths by 2021-total mortality was 15 086 (42.9%). Deaths post hospital discharge had median age at admission of 75.4 years [interquartile range (IQR) 63.7, 82.8] and died at median age of 80 years (IQR 69, 87). The half-life of survival following admission was 195 months-representing a short fall of 8 life years (32.9%) compared with the projected population reference of 24.3 years. Age [odds ratio (OR) 1.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64, 1.81)], acute illness severity score [OR 1.39 (95% CI 1.36, 1.43)] and comorbidity score [OR 1.09 (95% CI 1.08, 1.10)] predicted long-term mortality.

Conclusion: Similar factors influence both short- and long-term mortality following acute medical admission, the magnitude of effect is attenuated over time.