Risk factors for the long-term incidence and progression of knee osteoarthritis in older adults: role of nonsurgical injury.

Background: For one of the most chronic medical conditions, osteoarthritis, uncertainties remain on the impact of injury chronology, the role of repeat injury on the incidence/progression of this disease and the need for knee arthroplasty.

Objectives: To explore, in an older adult population, how nonsurgical knee injuries relate to osteoarthritis incidence/progression and the weight of independent risk factors for arthroplasty.

Design: A cohort study design evaluates the long-term impact of injuries on knee osteoarthritis outcomes.

Methods: Knees with no prior injury (n = 6358) and with at least one injury (n = 819) ⩽20 years before study inclusion were from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort. Sociodemographic, clinical and structural [X-ray, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)] data at study inclusion and changes within 96 months were analysed. Statistics included a mixed model for repeated measurements, generalized estimating equations and multivariable Cox regression with covariates.

Results: At inclusion, knees with prior injury demonstrated greater incidence and severity of osteoarthritis (p ⩽ 0.001). At 96 months, there was a greater increase in symptoms [Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain, p = 0.002], joint space width (JSW, p = 0.039) loss, medial cartilage volume loss (CVL, p ⩽ 0.001) and bone marrow lesion size (BML, p ⩽ 0.049). Knees with/without injury at inclusion but with new ones over time had a pronounced increase in symptoms (all WOMAC scores, p ⩽ 0.001), JSW loss, lateral (without) and medial CVL, lateral (without) and medial meniscal extrusion and medial BML (without; all p ⩽ 0.030). Levels of lateral and medial meniscal extrusion (without) and symptoms (with/without; all WOMAC scores, p ⩽ 0.001) were all accentuated with a repeated new injury. Risk factors associated with the highest knee arthroplasty occurrence are new meniscal extrusion and new injury (p ⩽ 0.001).

Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of nonsurgical knee injury in older adults as an independent risk factor for knee osteoarthritis and arthroplasty. These data will be beneficial in clinical practice as they will help identify individuals at greater risk of significant disease progression and worst disease outcomes for a customized therapeutic approach.