监狱和一般人群传染病传播的动态模型。

IF 5.2 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Epidemiologic Reviews Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI:10.1093/epirev/mxx014
Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah, Vivian S Vigliotti, Laura A Skrip, Kate Dolan, Alison P Galvani
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引用次数: 54

摘要

被监禁人口的传染病负担加重,而获得预防措施的机会有限又加剧了这种负担。动态模型用于评估教养所内疾病的传播和控制以及对一般人群的影响。我们对惩教机构内传染病动态模型的系统综述确定了1996年至2017年间发表的34项研究。其中,23项重点关注监狱中的疾病动态和干预,而没有考虑到随后向社区的传播。这些研究模拟的主要疾病是人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV);n = 14, 41%),结核病(TB;n = 10, 29%)和丙型肝炎病毒(HCV;N = 7, 21%)。模型拟合了14项研究的流行病学资料;其中8项研究进行了不确定性和敏感性分析,1项研究对模型预测进行了实证数据验证。根据这些模型,基于监狱的筛查和治疗可能是减少囚犯和一般社区中艾滋病毒、结核病、丙型肝炎病毒和其他性传播感染负担的非常有效的策略。预计降低监禁率将减少注射吸毒者中的艾滋病毒和丙型肝炎病毒感染以及所有囚犯中的结核病感染。讨论了建模研究的局限性和利用动态模型开发定量证据为监狱感染控制措施提供信息的机会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Dynamic Models of Infectious Disease Transmission in Prisons and the General Population.

Incarcerated populations experience elevated burdens of infectious diseases, which are exacerbated by limited access to prevention measures. Dynamic models are used to assess the spread and control of diseases within correctional facilities and repercussions on the general population. Our systematic review of dynamic models of infectious diseases within correctional settings identified 34 studies published between 1996 and 2017. Of these, 23 focused on disease dynamics and intervention in prison without accounting for subsequent spread to the community. The main diseases modeled in these studies were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; n = 14, 41%), tuberculosis (TB; n = 10, 29%), and hepatitis C virus (HCV; n = 7, 21%). Models were fitted to epidemiologic data in 14 studies; uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted in 8, and validation of model projection against empirical data was done in 1 study. According to the models, prison-based screening and treatment may be highly effective strategies for reducing the burden of HIV, TB, HCV, and other sexually transmissible infections among prisoners and the general community. Decreasing incarceration rates were projected to reduce HIV and HCV infections among people who inject drugs and TB infections among all prisoners. Limitations of the modeling studies and opportunities for using dynamic models to develop quantitative evidence for informing prison infection control measures are discussed.

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来源期刊
Epidemiologic Reviews
Epidemiologic Reviews 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
期刊介绍: Epidemiologic Reviews is a leading review journal in public health. Published once a year, issues collect review articles on a particular subject. Recent issues have focused on The Obesity Epidemic, Epidemiologic Research on Health Disparities, and Epidemiologic Approaches to Global Health.
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