Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah, Vivian S Vigliotti, Laura A Skrip, Kate Dolan, Alison P Galvani
{"title":"监狱和一般人群传染病传播的动态模型。","authors":"Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah, Vivian S Vigliotti, Laura A Skrip, Kate Dolan, Alison P Galvani","doi":"10.1093/epirev/mxx014","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Incarcerated populations experience elevated burdens of infectious diseases, which are exacerbated by limited access to prevention measures. Dynamic models are used to assess the spread and control of diseases within correctional facilities and repercussions on the general population. Our systematic review of dynamic models of infectious diseases within correctional settings identified 34 studies published between 1996 and 2017. Of these, 23 focused on disease dynamics and intervention in prison without accounting for subsequent spread to the community. The main diseases modeled in these studies were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; n = 14, 41%), tuberculosis (TB; n = 10, 29%), and hepatitis C virus (HCV; n = 7, 21%). Models were fitted to epidemiologic data in 14 studies; uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted in 8, and validation of model projection against empirical data was done in 1 study. According to the models, prison-based screening and treatment may be highly effective strategies for reducing the burden of HIV, TB, HCV, and other sexually transmissible infections among prisoners and the general community. Decreasing incarceration rates were projected to reduce HIV and HCV infections among people who inject drugs and TB infections among all prisoners. Limitations of the modeling studies and opportunities for using dynamic models to develop quantitative evidence for informing prison infection control measures are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":50510,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologic Reviews","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2000,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epirev/mxx014","citationCount":"54","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Dynamic Models of Infectious Disease Transmission in Prisons and the General Population.\",\"authors\":\"Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah, Vivian S Vigliotti, Laura A Skrip, Kate Dolan, Alison P Galvani\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/epirev/mxx014\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Incarcerated populations experience elevated burdens of infectious diseases, which are exacerbated by limited access to prevention measures. Dynamic models are used to assess the spread and control of diseases within correctional facilities and repercussions on the general population. Our systematic review of dynamic models of infectious diseases within correctional settings identified 34 studies published between 1996 and 2017. Of these, 23 focused on disease dynamics and intervention in prison without accounting for subsequent spread to the community. The main diseases modeled in these studies were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; n = 14, 41%), tuberculosis (TB; n = 10, 29%), and hepatitis C virus (HCV; n = 7, 21%). Models were fitted to epidemiologic data in 14 studies; uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted in 8, and validation of model projection against empirical data was done in 1 study. According to the models, prison-based screening and treatment may be highly effective strategies for reducing the burden of HIV, TB, HCV, and other sexually transmissible infections among prisoners and the general community. Decreasing incarceration rates were projected to reduce HIV and HCV infections among people who inject drugs and TB infections among all prisoners. Limitations of the modeling studies and opportunities for using dynamic models to develop quantitative evidence for informing prison infection control measures are discussed.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50510,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Epidemiologic Reviews\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epirev/mxx014\",\"citationCount\":\"54\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Epidemiologic Reviews\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxx014\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemiologic Reviews","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxx014","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Dynamic Models of Infectious Disease Transmission in Prisons and the General Population.
Incarcerated populations experience elevated burdens of infectious diseases, which are exacerbated by limited access to prevention measures. Dynamic models are used to assess the spread and control of diseases within correctional facilities and repercussions on the general population. Our systematic review of dynamic models of infectious diseases within correctional settings identified 34 studies published between 1996 and 2017. Of these, 23 focused on disease dynamics and intervention in prison without accounting for subsequent spread to the community. The main diseases modeled in these studies were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; n = 14, 41%), tuberculosis (TB; n = 10, 29%), and hepatitis C virus (HCV; n = 7, 21%). Models were fitted to epidemiologic data in 14 studies; uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted in 8, and validation of model projection against empirical data was done in 1 study. According to the models, prison-based screening and treatment may be highly effective strategies for reducing the burden of HIV, TB, HCV, and other sexually transmissible infections among prisoners and the general community. Decreasing incarceration rates were projected to reduce HIV and HCV infections among people who inject drugs and TB infections among all prisoners. Limitations of the modeling studies and opportunities for using dynamic models to develop quantitative evidence for informing prison infection control measures are discussed.
期刊介绍:
Epidemiologic Reviews is a leading review journal in public health. Published once a year, issues collect review articles on a particular subject. Recent issues have focused on The Obesity Epidemic, Epidemiologic Research on Health Disparities, and Epidemiologic Approaches to Global Health.