Predictors of early bleeding after endoscopic variceal ligation for esophageal varices: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Aim of the study: Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is important for emergency as well as prophylactic management of esophageal varices. Early bleeding after EVL is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Assessing the likelihood of early post-EVL bleeding and its determinants can help deciding therapeutic strategies for high-risk patients. The aim of the present meta-analysis was to identify predictors of early bleeding after EVL.

Material and methods: A comprehensive search of the literature was conducted from 2000 to November 2021 for studies evaluating the incidence, predictors and outcome of post-EVL bleeding. Pooled odds ratios (OR), mean difference (MD) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for prognostic variables.

Results: A total of 16 studies with data on 13,378 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Among 34 parameters, 14 parameters were assessed for association with early bleeding after EVL. Lower hemoglobin at admission (MD = 1.11, 95% CI: -1.91 to -0.31), higher MELD score (MD = 2.00, 95% CI: 0.51-3.50), associated gastric varices (OR = 5.99, 95% CI: 1.06-33.90), higher number of bands (MD = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.02-0.97), and peptic esophagitis (OR = 11.38, 95% CI: 1.21-106.81) were significantly associated with increased risk of bleeding. However, there was significant heterogeneity among the studies with respect to all the analyzed parameters.

Conclusions: Major predictors for early post-EVL bleeding in cirrhosis are admission hemoglobin level and MELD score, associated gastric varices, number of bands deployed during EVL, and peptic esophagitis on follow-up endoscopy. These risk factors may be useful for risk stratification after EVL in cirrhotics.