A two-stage super learner for healthcare expenditures.

Objective: To improve the estimation of healthcare expenditures by introducing a novel method that is well-suited to situations where data exhibit strong skewness and zero-inflation.

Data sources: Simulations, and two real-world datasets: the 2016-2017 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS); the Back Pain Outcomes using Longitudinal Data (BOLD).

Study design: Super learner is an ensemble machine learning approach that can combine several algorithms to improve estimation. We propose a two-stage super learner that is well suited for healthcare expenditure data by separately estimating the probability of any healthcare expenditure and the mean amount of healthcare expenditure conditional on having healthcare expenditures. These estimates can then be combined to yield a single estimate of expenditures for each observation. The analytical strategy can flexibly incorporate a range of individual estimation approaches for each stage of estimation, including both regression-based approaches and machine learning algorithms such as random forests. We compare the performance of the two-stage super learner with a one-stage super learner, and with multiple individual algorithms for estimation of healthcare cost under a broad range of data settings in simulated and real data. The predictive performance was compared using Mean Squared Error and R².

Conclusions: Our results indicate that the two-stage super learner has better performance compared with a one-stage super learner and individual algorithms, for healthcare cost estimation under a wide variety of settings in simulations and in empirical analyses. The improvement of the two-stage super learner over the one-stage super learner was particularly evident in settings when zero-inflation is high.