均衡定价模型对现实世界的扭曲有多敏感?

H. Lamba
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摘要

在金融和经济学中,定量模型通常作为孤立的数学对象进行研究——通常通过关于理性、效率和非均衡调整机制存在的非常强烈的简化假设来定义。这就提出了一个重要的问题,即这些模型对违背假设的现实世界效应有多敏感。我们展示了由反常激励引起的理性行为的后果,以及行为经济学家确定的各种非理性倾向,可以系统地、一致地引入基于主体的金融资产模型。这就产生了一类模型,在这种效应不存在的特殊情况下,这些模型可以简化为几何布朗运动——通常的均衡定价模型。因此,我们能够数值扰动一个广泛使用的均衡定价模型市场,并研究其稳定性。在真实市场中,这种扰动的大小是可以估计的,模拟表明,这远远超出了平衡解的稳定区域,不再被观察到。事实上,由内生动力产生的价格波动,与实际资产价格的超峰度和异方差具有良好的总体一致性。该方法是在金融市场的背景下提出的。然而,它与微观和宏观经济学的概念和理论有着密切的联系,包括理性预期、索罗斯的反身性理论和明斯基的金融不稳定理论。
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How sensitive are equilibrium pricing models to real-world distortions?
In both finance and economics, quantitative models are usually studied as isolated mathematical objects --- most often defined by very strong simplifying assumptions concerning rationality, efficiency and the existence of disequilibrium adjustment mechanisms. This raises the important question of how sensitive such models might be to real-world effects that violate the assumptions. We show how the consequences of rational behavior caused by perverse incentives, as well as various irrational tendencies identified by behavioral economists, can be systematically and consistently introduced into an agent-based model for a financial asset. This generates a class of models which, in the special case where such effects are absent, reduces to geometric Brownian motion --- the usual equilibrium pricing model. Thus we are able to numerically perturb a widely-used equilibrium pricing model market and investigate its stability. The magnitude of such perturbations in real markets can be estimated and the simulations imply that this is far outside the stability region of the equilibrium solution, which is no longer observed. Indeed the price fluctuations generated by endogenous dynamics, are in good general agreement with the excess kurtosis and heteroskedasticity of actual asset prices. The methodology is presented within the context of a financial market. However, there are close links to concepts and theories from both micro- and macro-economics including rational expectations, Soros' theory of reflexivity, and Minsky's theory of financial instability.
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