影响中国新一代农民工家庭迁移决策的因素?多水平Logistic回归分析

Meiling Hou, Xiaoyan Zhou, Ronghao Jiang
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近年来,中国大规模的新一代城乡流动人口引起了学术界的广泛关注。以往对中国农民工的研究主要集中在农民工个人的定居意愿上,而对农民工家庭的迁移决策以及老一代农民工与新一代农民工的代际差异的研究较少。本文基于《2017年中国流动人口动态调查》数据,采用多层次logistic回归方法,探讨影响中国新生代农民工家庭迁移决策的家庭和目的地因素。实证结果表明,移民的家庭属性和目的地属性对其家庭迁移决策都有显著影响。家庭人口特征和社会经济特征是中国新一代农民工家庭迁移决策的关键因素,而16.9%的机会被目的地之间的差异所解释。在东道城市拥有房产、迁移时间长、高收入水平的个体户农民工更有可能随家人一起迁移。然而,家庭迁移的可能性与新生代农民工的年龄、受教育程度、子女数量和省际流动性呈显著负相关。此外,新生代农民工家庭迁移更倾向于选择产业结构服务型、环境质量较好、落户门槛较高的城市,这可能与就业机会较多有关。这些研究结果不仅是对中国新生代农民工研究文献的补充,而且对改革户籍制度、促进农民工社会融合具有重要的政策意义。
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What Influences Family Migration Decision of China’s New Generation Rural-urban Migrants? A Multilevel Logistic Regression Analysis
The massive scale of new-generation rural-urban migrants in China has attracted extensive scholarly attention in recent years. While previous studies on China’s rural migrant workers focus on migrants’ individual settlement intentions, migrant’s family migration decision-making and the intergenerational differences between the old-generation migrants and new-generation migrants are underexplored. Based on the data of 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this paper adopts a multilevel logistic regression approach to explore family and destination factors influencing family migration decision of China’s new generation rural migrant workers. The empirical results reveal that both the migrants’ family and destination attributes significantly influence their family migration decision. The demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of family have been pivotal factors underlying family migration decision of China’s new generation rural-urban migrants, while 16.9% of the chances is explained by between-destination differences. Self-employed migrants with housing properties in host cities, long migration duration and high-income level are more likely to migrate with their family members. Yet, the possibility of family migration is found to be significantly and negatively correlated with the age, education level, number of children and inter-provincial mobility of the new generation migrant workers. In addition, new generation rural-urban migrants’ family migration is more likely to be found in cities with service-oriented industry structure, better environmental quality, and higher hukou barriers which is possibly related to more job opportunities. These research findings not only complement the existing literature on China’s new generation rural-urban migrants, but also have important policy implications for reforming hukou system and enhancing social integration of rural-to-urban migrant population.
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