巴基斯坦东兴都库什山脉吉德拉尔地区泥石流灾害评估

Shakeel Mahmood, Attia Atiq
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究的目的是利用地质和水文气象指标在巴基斯坦西北部兴都库什地区的吉德拉尔地区进行泥石流风险区划。这项研究是基于二手数据。采用地理信息系统(GIS)环境下的多准则分析(MCA)来实现研究目标。对地质水文气象参数进行了分析,每种参数分为五类。这些类别按数值权重排序为最有利和最不利。根据其在泥石流发生中的重要程度分配权重。然后应用加权叠加分析技术,绘制各因子重要性的复合图。将泥石流危险区划分为极高危险区、高危险区、中等危险区、低危险区4类。研究区地质条件多样,地震频繁。同样,由于人为活动,森林覆盖也在减少。该地区的另一个特点是漫长寒冷的冬季和霜冻。这些因素使斜坡不稳定。夏季暴雨事件造成多年生和非多年生河道地表径流量大,洪峰流量大,形成洪水和泥石流。这些事件造成人命损失和破坏。位于高风险区的主要村庄是Mulkoh、Mastuj、Reshun、Shegram、Terich Gol、Rogar、Asurat、Boni、Brep和Rech Tockhow。在过去十年中,它们经常受到灾害的影响。其中,极高风险区扩大了8%以上,高风险区扩大了16%以上,中等风险区扩大了29%,其余为低风险区。这项研究突出了风险区域,这将有助于灾害管理当局和决策者在未来减少泥石流的风险。
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Debris Flow Hazard Assessment in District Chitral, Eastern Hindu Kush, Pakistan
The aim of this study is debris flow risk zonation using geological and hydrometeorological indicators in district Chitral, Hindu Kush Region Northwest Pakistan. The research is based on secondary data. Multi criteria Analysis (MCA) in Geographical Information System (GIS) environment was used to achieve the objective of the study. The geological and hydrometeorological parameters were analyzed by making five classes of each parameter. The classes are ranked as most favorable and least favorable with numerical weights. The weights were assigned in accordance to their importance in debris flow occurrence. Then weighted overlay analysis techniques were applied to develop composite map representing the importance of each factor. Debris flow risk zonation map was resulted into four classes very high risk zones, high risk zone, moderate zone, low risk zone. The geology of the study area is diverse with frequents earthquakes. Similarly the forest cover is decreasing due to anthropogenic activities. The area is also characterized by long cold winters with frost action. These factors are destabilizing the slope. During summer season rain storm event results high surface runoff and peak discharge in the perennial and non-perennial channels which results flood and debris flow. These events result human life loss and disruption.  The main villages located in very high risk zone are Mulkoh, Mastuj, Reshun, Shegram, Terich Gol, Rogar, Asurat, Boni, Brep and Rech Tockhow. They have been frequently affected by hazard in the past decade. Out of the total area, very high risk zone is expanded over 8%, high risk zone is expanded over16%, moderate risk zone is 29% and the rest is low risk zone. This study has highlighted the risk zones which will help disaster management authorities and policy makers to reduce the risk of debris flow in future.
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