通过顺序蒙特卡罗模拟快速生成系统充分性评估的并行GPU实现

Inês M. Alves, Vladimiro Miranda, L. Carvalho
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引用次数: 0

摘要

序贯蒙特卡罗模拟(SMCS)是一种强大而灵活的系统充分性评估方法。该方法通过对停电事件的顺序和各自的持续时间进行采样,可以很容易地纳入可再生能源发电、水电机组容量、计划维护、复杂的相关负荷模型等时间相关问题,是唯一提供可靠性指标概率分布的方法。尽管有这些优点,SMCS方法比非顺序蒙特卡罗模拟方法需要更多的模拟时间来提供准确的可靠性指标估计。为了减少模拟时间,采用图形处理单元(GPU)并行实现SMCS方法,以利用这些计算平台提供的快速计算。提出了两种并行化策略:策略A以完全并行的方式创建和评估年度样本,同时在CPU中计算可靠性指标的估计;策略B是在连续执行状态评估和索引估计阶段的同时,对发电机组的停电事件进行并发采样。对IEEE RTS 79、IEEE RTS 96和新的IEEE RTS GMLC测试系统的仿真结果表明,这两种实现在保持SMCS方法所有优点的同时,显著地加快了SMCS方法的速度。此外,还观察到策略B在发电系统充分性评估方面比策略A的模拟时间更短。
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Parallel GPU Implementation for Fast Generating System Adequacy Assessment via Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation
The Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS) is a powerful and flexible method commonly used for generating system adequacy assessment. By sampling outage events in sequence and their respective duration, this method can easily incorporate time-dependent issues such as renewable power production, the capacity of hydro units, scheduled maintenance, complex correlated load models, etc, and is the only method that provides probability distributions for the reliability indexes. Despite these advantages, the SMCS method requires considerably more simulation time than the Non-sequential Monte Carlo Simulation approach to provide accurate estimates for the reliability indexes. In an attempt to reduce the simulation time, the SMCS method has been implemented in parallel using a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) to take advantage of the fast calculations provided by these computing platforms. Two parallelization strategies are proposed: Strategy A, which creates and evaluates yearly samples in a completely parallel approach and while the estimates of the reliability indexes are computed in the CPU; and Strategy B, which consists on concurrently sampling the outage events for the generating units while the state evaluation and the index estimation stages are executed in serial. Simulation results for the IEEE RTS 79, IEEE RTS 96, and the new IEEE RTS GMLC test systems, show that both implementations lead to a significant acceleration of the SMCS method while keeping all its advantages. In addition, it was observed that Strategy B results in less simulation time than Strategy A for generation system adequacy assessment.
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