{"title":"在低不确定性和高不确定性时期不断增加的商业不确定性和信贷状况:来自企业层面调查数据的证据","authors":"C. Grimme, Steffen R. Henzel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3754682","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We demonstrate that the impact of increases in uncertainty on bank credit conditions depends on the level of uncertainty. Using firm-level survey data, we document that a surge in business-specific uncertainty is particularly damaging when this uncertainty is low: low levels nearly triple the effect compared to high levels. The result is robust to controlling for recessionary periods. To provide an interpretation, we build and calibrate a stylized model in which bank lending is governed by expectations about the future level of business uncertainty. Increases in uncertainty serve as a signal to update these expectations. The model predicts that expectations are revised more strongly and, thus, lending drops more under low uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":179699,"journal":{"name":"CESifo: Monetary Policy & International Finance (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Increasing Business Uncertainty and Credit Conditions in Times of Low and High Uncertainty: Evidence from Firm-Level Survey Data\",\"authors\":\"C. Grimme, Steffen R. Henzel\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3754682\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We demonstrate that the impact of increases in uncertainty on bank credit conditions depends on the level of uncertainty. Using firm-level survey data, we document that a surge in business-specific uncertainty is particularly damaging when this uncertainty is low: low levels nearly triple the effect compared to high levels. The result is robust to controlling for recessionary periods. To provide an interpretation, we build and calibrate a stylized model in which bank lending is governed by expectations about the future level of business uncertainty. Increases in uncertainty serve as a signal to update these expectations. The model predicts that expectations are revised more strongly and, thus, lending drops more under low uncertainty.\",\"PeriodicalId\":179699,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"CESifo: Monetary Policy & International Finance (Topic)\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1900-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"CESifo: Monetary Policy & International Finance (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3754682\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"CESifo: Monetary Policy & International Finance (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3754682","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Increasing Business Uncertainty and Credit Conditions in Times of Low and High Uncertainty: Evidence from Firm-Level Survey Data
We demonstrate that the impact of increases in uncertainty on bank credit conditions depends on the level of uncertainty. Using firm-level survey data, we document that a surge in business-specific uncertainty is particularly damaging when this uncertainty is low: low levels nearly triple the effect compared to high levels. The result is robust to controlling for recessionary periods. To provide an interpretation, we build and calibrate a stylized model in which bank lending is governed by expectations about the future level of business uncertainty. Increases in uncertainty serve as a signal to update these expectations. The model predicts that expectations are revised more strongly and, thus, lending drops more under low uncertainty.