希腊的大骗局

Pablo Triana
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摘要

自2010年以来,希腊一直沉浸在臭名昭著的救助计划中,其中最令人震惊和惊人的方面之一肯定是,在此期间,该国的税收征收率低迷且迅速下降。也就是说,尽管希腊不断从欧元区和IMF获得越来越多的贷款,但政府在征税方面的效率(或意愿)却越来越低。对许多非希腊人来说,这将是对希腊的又一次侮辱。希腊以令人难以置信的日益慷慨的条件,向一个本来就要破产的国家提供了巨额资金,结果却经常遭到受援国的谴责和谩骂。截至2015年底,累计未缴税款约为950亿欧元,自2010年以来增加了约600亿欧元。如果希腊政府能更有效率,或者真的渴望从居民那里获得税收收入,该国的偿债能力就会强得多,因此也就不那么需要官方贷款机构的救助了。数以十亿计的非希腊纳税人的钱(这些钱可能永远不会得到偿还)也不会处于危险之中。除了未征收的税收,如果我们考虑通过私有化和资产出售为国家创造收入的可能性,那么很明显,希腊本可以自力更生。就在救助贷款即将发放之际,希腊政府的资产估计在4000亿至5000亿欧元之间。再加上被忽视的税收收入,希腊显然有足够的资源自己支付所有的关键款项(债务赎回、地方银行国有化、债务管理),这些款项最终将由救助资金支付。而且这种自力更生还会带来额外的好处:如果没有机会指责欧元区和国际货币基金组织(imf)的计划将所谓难以忍受的“紧缩”强加给民众,激进的反体制政治运动很可能不会变得有影响力,也不会夺取权力。这将有助于希腊重返资本市场,并改善经济表现,从而产生更多的内部产生的资金(比如,用这些资金为增加的财政慷慨提供资金)。不可避免的结论似乎是,救助援助是不必要的,也不应该发生。欧元和全球纳税人将被一个即使有能力也不愿意自己支付的国家所欺骗。
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The Big Fat Greek Swindle
One of the most shocking and amazing aspects surrounding the infamous bailout programs that Greece has been immersed in since 2010 surely must be the fact that throughout that period the country has experienced a lackluster and fast declining tax collection rate. That is, even as Greece kept receiving larger and larger amounts of loan disbursements from the Eurozone and the IMF, the government was less and less efficient (or willing) when it came to collecting taxes. To many non-Greeks, this would add insult to the injury of having provided an otherwise bankrupt nation with vast sums of money under incredibly increasingly generous terms only to have regularly faced the opprobrium and invective of those receiving the funds. About €95 billion had accumulated in unpaid taxes by end-2015, an increase of about €60 billion since 2010. Had the Greek government been more efficient or eager to actually gather tax revenue from its residents, the country would have been much more solvent and thusly much less in need of being rescued by official lenders. Many billions of non-Greek taxpayers money (which may never be repaid) would not have been put at risk. If besides the uncollected levies we consider the possibilities for state revenue generation through privatizations and asset sales, it becomes quite obvious that Greece could have stood on its own feet. Just as the bailout loans were about to be disbursed, the Greek government had assets estimated as between €400-500 billion. Added to the neglected tax revenue, clearly more than enough resources for Greece to have met on its own all the key payments (debt redemptions, local banks nationalization, liability management exercises) that have been eventually met with bailout money. And such self-reliance would have brought an added benefit: deprived of the chance to blame the Eurozone-IMF programs for imposing allegedly insufferable “austerity” on the populace, radical anti-system political movements would most likely not have grown influential and captured power. This would have facilitated Greece’s return to capital markets as well as improved economic performance, leading to yet more internally-generated funds (with which to finance enhanced fiscal largesse, say). The inescapable conclusion seems to be that bailout aid was not needed and should not have happened. Euro and global taxpayers would have been swindled by a country that does not want to pay its own way even though it can.
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