以风险为导向,监测影响大城市生活质量的环境因素

I.S. Yeremeiev, A.O. Dychko, S. Harkavyi, O.V. Savchuk, S.V. Hulich
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究的目的是在考虑到不确定性因素和人为影响因素的风险的情况下,为监测特大城市的生境质量提出建议。材料和方法。关于乌克兰自然环境状况的国家和地区报告,乌克兰和外国科学家关于评估大都市生活质量的研究以及管理决策系统中环境监测的有效性被用作研究材料。为了达到研究的目的,使用了系统分析、模糊集理论、概率论、决策理论、欧几里得度量等方法。结果。现代监测系统的任务是不断监测当前的污染水平,并预测这一水平的可能变化趋势,并有可能观察和确定环境污染的状况。确定技术污染区域动态的任务可以简化为通过评价欧几里得度规对观测结果进行分析和相互比较。确定其有害影响开始显现的污染极限水平,以及确定协同效应,将有助于对环境质量进行综合评估。结论。管理环境因素对大城市生活质量的影响程度与解决诸如建立有效识别状态的程序、制定一套克服问题的统一方案、在危机情况下形成典型决策系统结构的必要性等问题有关。一般来说,特大城市环境安全领域的管理决策是在不确定的条件下进行的。对一种或另一种备选办法的选择受到下列因素的影响:决定的遥远或间接后果、提供管理决策信息方面的"琐事"问题等等。
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Risk-orienteted monitoring of environmental factors affecting the quality of life in megapolises
The aim of the research is to develop recommendations for monitoring the quality of habitat in megacities, taking into account the uncertainty factor and the risks of man-made factors of influence. Materials and methods. National and regional reports on the state of the natural environment in Ukraine, research of the Ukrainian and foreign scientists on assessing the quality of life in the metropolis and the effectiveness of environmental monitoring in the management decision-making system are used as research materials. To achieve the goal of the research, the methods of system analysis, elements of the theory of fuzzy sets, the theory of probabilities, the theory of decision-making, Euclidean metrics, etc. are used. The results. The task of modern monitoring systems is constant monitoring of the current level of pollution, as well as forecasting possible trends of changes in this level, with the possibility of observing and identifying the state of environmental pollution. The task of identifying the dynamics of the technogenic pollution area can be reduced to the analysis of observations and comparisons of their results with each other by evaluating the Euclidean metric. Identifying the limit levels of pollution at which their harmful effects begin to manifest, as well as establishing the synergism effect will allow to provide an integral assessment of the quality of the environment. Conclusions. Management of the level of influence of environmental factors on the quality of life in megapolis is related to the solution of such problems as the creation of procedures for effective identification of the state, the development of a set of unified scenarios for overcoming problems, the need to form the structure of a typical decision-making system in crisis situations, etc. As a rule, management decisions in the field of environmental safety of megacities take place under conditions of uncertainty. The choice of one or another alternative is influenced by such factors as remote or indirect consequences of decisions, problems of "trifles" in the information provision of management decision-making, etc.
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