影响驾驶人伤害严重程度的因素:巴基斯坦白沙瓦地区交通事故的实证评估

Haroon Rashid, S. Shah, Sheikh Muhammad Usman
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摘要

在巴基斯坦,乘汽车旅行是一种流行的交通方式。同样,驾驶者占白沙瓦地区注册汽车总数的66%,从2006年到2016年增长了200%。目前的研究估计了一个随机参数Logit (RPL)模型的异质性均值和变化,以确定各种参数,有助于驾驶者的伤害的野蛮。驾驶者特征、时间特征、机动车辆特征、道路属性、天气特征和限速效应的影响是本次分析的主要考虑因素。一般来说,典型的近似结果表明,包括年轻司机、冬季指标和发生在上午10点至下午2点之间的撞车事故在内的事故中,受伤的机会和严重程度都会增加。同样,轻微的擦伤更可能发生在老年司机身上,发生在阳光明媚的天气、秋季和8月份。根据本研究的结果,提出了提高专业驾驶员安全的安全措施,如对驾驶员进行交通规则和安全教育,对无有效执照驾驶零容忍,以及在道路上实施限速。这项研究的结果将有助制订改善驾驶人士安全的策略。
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Factors Influencing Motorists' Injury Severities: An Empirical Assessment of Crashes in District Peshawar, Pakistan
Travelling in a motor car is a popular mode of conveyance across Pakistan. Similarly, motorists constitute about 66% of total registered cars in Peshawar District which observed a 200% increase from 2006 to 2016. The current research estimates a Random Parameter Logit (RPL) Model by heterogeneousness means & variations in order to identify various parameters that contribute to the motorists' brutality of injury. The effects of motorist traits, temporal characteristics, motor vehicle features, roadway attributes, weather characteristics and effects of speed limits were predominantly considered for this analysis. Generally, typical approximation results show that the chance and severity of injuries increase for accidents including young drivers, winter indicators, and crashes that occurred between 10 AM-02 PM. Likewise, minor wound smashes are more likely to involve senior drivers, occurring during sunny weather, in the autumn season and in the month of August. Safety measures are suggested based on the findings of this research study to improve professional's motorist safety e.g. educating drivers about traffic rules and safety, zero tolerance for driving without a valid license, and enforcing speed limits on the roads. The results of this study will help in formulating strategies to improve motorists' safety.
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