老龄化对耐用品持有量的影响

Anikó Bíró
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我分析老龄化如何影响非住房耐用品的需求。基于英国老龄化纵向研究,个体特征、队列和时间效应可以解释耐用品拥有和购买的大部分年龄差异。推导了一个生命周期模型,以捕捉老龄化与非住房耐用品需求之间的复杂关系。生存概率下降、健康状况恶化和偏好变化共同反映在需求的年龄梯度上。模拟表明,更高的生存几率会增加耐用品的拥有率。
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Effect of Ageing on the Ownership of Durable Goods
I analyse how ageing affects the demand for non-housing durable goods. Based on the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, individual characteristics, cohort and time effects can explain most of the age variation in the ownership and purchase of durable goods. A life-cycle model is derived to capture the complex relation between ageing and the demand for non-housing durable goods. Decreasing survival probability, deteriorating health and changing preferences are jointly reflected in the age gradient of demand. Simulations indicate that higher chances of survival increase the ownership ratio of the durable items.
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