基于改进LSTM的电力负荷预测

Dedong Tang, Chen Li, Xiaohui Ji, Zhenyu Chen, Fangchun Di
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引用次数: 7

摘要

电力负荷预测是根据某一地区的历史能耗数据,预测该地区未来一段时间的用电情况。准确的预测可以为电力建设和电网运行提供有效、可靠的指导。提出了一种基于两长短期记忆层神经网络的电力负荷预测方法。基于EUNITE提供的实际电力负荷数据,构建了一种基于LSTM的电力负荷预测方法。建立了单点预测模型和多点预测模型,对未来一小时和半天的电力进行预测。实验结果表明,LSTM网络单点预测模型的平均绝对百分比误差为1.806,多点预测模型的平均绝对百分比误差为2.496。
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Power Load Forecasting Using a Refined LSTM
The power load forecasting is based on historical energy consumption data of a region to forecast the power consumption of the region for a period of time in the future. Accurate forecasting can provide effective and reliable guidance for power construction and grid operation. This paper proposed a power load forecasting approach using a two LSTM (long-short-term memory) layers neural network. Based on the real power load data provided by EUNITE, a power load forecasting method based on LSTM is constructed. Two models, single-point forecasting model and multiple-point forecasting model, are built to forecast the power of next hour and next half day. The experimental results show that the mean absolute percentage error of the single-point forecasting model is 1.806 and the mean absolute percentage error of the multiple-points forecasting model of LSTM network is 2.496.
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