政治不稳定和Covid - 19大流行危机对突尼斯行业股价回报的溢出效应

Hassan Guenichi, Néjib Chouaibi
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摘要

为了检验政治不稳定(PI)和Covid-19大流行危机(以死亡率(DR)衡量)对突尼斯行业股票市场回报的影响,我们的论文通过提供基于DCC多变量GARCH的这些影响的新研究,为金融文献做出了贡献。这些影响在均值和方差返回方程中得到了特别的检验。我们的研究结果表明,两个变量在均值上的负向效应不显著,但在方差方程中,IP和DR的系数显著。尽管COVID-19大流行危机对投资者的恐惧情绪产生了积极影响;在政治不稳定时期,所有行业股票市场收益的条件波动率较高,导致突尼斯股市风险较高。我们的研究结果为政策制定者以及突尼斯股票市场的公司、投资者和所有利益相关者提供了有用的政策和金融启示
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Spillovers of Political Instability and Covid 19 Pandemic Crisis on Tunisian Sectorial Stock Price Returns
To examine the effects of Political instability (PI) and Covid-19 pandemic crisis measured by death rate (DR) on Tunisian sectorial stock market returns, our paper contributes to the financial literature by providing a new study of these effects based on DCC multivariate GARCH. These effects are specially examined in mean and variance returns equations. Our results show a not significant negative effect of both variables under study in mean but significant coefficients of IP and DR in variance equation. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic crisis positively impacts the investor’s fear sentiments; the conditional volatility of all sectorial stock market returns is higher in political instability period leading high-level risk in Tunisian stock market. Our findings offer useful policy and financial implications to the policy makers also to firms, investors and all stakeholders of the Tunisian stock market
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