投资者能否在COVID-19大流行期间利用技术交易规则获利?

Min-Yuh Day, Paoyu Huang, Yirung Cheng, Yensen Ni
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引用次数: 1

摘要

过去,人们认为投资者利用技术交易规则进行股票交易可能会产生异常回报(AR)。但是,自新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来,全球股市似乎受到了严重冲击。因此,在新冠肺炎疫情期间,投资者能否运用技术交易规则战胜市场,成为市场参与者关注的重要问题。本研究的目的是检验在COVID-19大流行下使用技术交易规则交易股票的盈利能力。通过对dj30成分股和纳斯达克100成分股的交易,我们发现,在新冠疫情期间,本研究采用的几乎所有交易规则都未能跑赢市场,这与2019年的结果不同。本研究揭示的结果可能会说明,当股市受到COVID-19等黑天鹅事件的严重影响时,投资者应谨慎采用技术交易。
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Can Investors Profit from Utilizing Technical Trading Rules during the COVID-19 Pandemic?
In the past, it was believed that investors may generate abnormal returns (AR) for trading stocks by employing technical trading rules. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, stock markets around the world seem to suffer a serious impact. Therefore, whether investors can beat the markets by applying technical trading rules during the period of COVID-19 pandemic becomes an important issue for market participants. The purpose of this study is to examine the profitability of trading stocks with the use of technical trading rules under the COVID-19 pandemic. By trading the constituent stocks of DJ 30 and NASDAQ 100, we find that almost all of the trading rules employed in this study fail to beat the market during the COVID-19 pandemic period, which is different from the results in 2019. The revealed findings of this study may shed light on that investors should adopt technical trading with care when stock markets are seriously affected by black swan events like COVID-19.
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