出口数量、石油产量和税收对俄罗斯GDP增长的影响

Muhammad Khairun Ikhsan, Moch. Cholil
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摘要

本研究以俄罗斯国内生产总值(GDP)增长为指标(以百分比为单位),调查了出口占GDP、税收、石油发电和经济增长的百分比。本研究采用向量自回归模型的定性方法,研究周期为2000年至2020年。我们发现,与税收和石油能源消费有关的经济增长正在加速。但税收抑制了经济增长。也就是说,当经济增长增加时,税收和石油消费也会增加。然而,当税收增加时,它会抑制经济增长。虽然税收会抑制出口,但出口的增加实际上会增加税收。出口的增加也刺激了石油消费。作为对俄罗斯出口贡献巨大的大宗商品之一,石油价格的涨跌间接影响着俄罗斯的国家财政,这一点可以从出口增加推动俄罗斯收入的情况中看出。
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Impact Of Export Quantity, Oil Production And Tax Revenue On GDP Growth In Russia
This research investigates the percentage of exports of GDP, Tax Revenue, Production of electricity from oil sources, and Economic growth with GDP growth as an indicator (in percent) in Russia. This study uses a qualitative method with a vector autoregressive model This research employs a research period from 2000 to 2020. We find that economic growth is accelerating positively concerning to tax revenue and consumption of oil-based energy. But taxes suppress economic growth. That is, when economic growth increases, taxes, and oil consumption also increase. However, when taxes increase, it depresses economic growth. Although tax revenues suppress exports, an increase in exports actually increases tax revenues. The increase in exports also boosted oil consumption. Russia's state finances are indirectly affected by the rise and fall of oil prices as one of the commodities that contribute significantly to Russia's exports, which is indicated by the increase in exports pushing Russia's revenue.
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