大规模灾害应对的决策技巧分析

Charles Rose, Robert Seater, A. Norige
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引用次数: 4

摘要

像在美国城市引爆简易核装置这样的大规模灾难,将给各级政府、私人组织和公众带来重大的应对挑战。政府官员和应急管理人员将在整个应对工作中面临困难和影响重大的选择,他们必须准备在整个工作中及时作出关键决定。决策准备可能不仅仅涉及技术培训和资源。这可能会延伸到应急管理人员在认知和情感上为他们可能面临的情况做好准备。本文提出了实现更大目标的第一步,即开发可替代的备灾培训方法,教授有效的决策。项目团队采访了经验丰富的灾难应对专业人士,并分析了他们强调的在灾害应对过程中既重要又困难的决策。受访者还指出了有效做出这些决策所需的关键技能。本文报告了IND响应所需的具体决策和技能的发现和分析。
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Analysis of decision making skills for large scale disaster response
A large scale disaster such as the detonation of an improvised nuclear device (IND) in a U.S. city would pose significant response challenges for all levels of government, private organizations, and the general public. Public officials and emergency managers would face difficult and high impact choices throughout the response effort, and they must prepare to make timely and key decisions throughout the effort. Decision making preparation may involve more than technical training and resources. It may extend to emergency managers being cognitively and emotionally prepared for the situations they may face. This paper presents the first step toward the larger goal of developing alternative disaster preparedness training methods that teach effective decision making. The project team interviewed highly experienced, disaster response professionals and analyzed decisions they emphasized as being both important and difficult during an IND response. The respondents also identified the critical skills needed to make those decisions effectively. This paper reports on the findings and analysis of specific decisions and skills required for an IND response.
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