在LQ 45股Covid-19流行期间,对股票收益回报率的系统性风险分析

Yasmin Afnan Solekha, Wahid Wachyu Adi Winarto
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引用次数: 3

摘要

新冠肺炎疫情的影响非常大。世界各地都在努力防止这种病毒的传播,决定封锁、隔离区或PSBB。这导致了经济和金融市场的滞后。国内外投资者处置资金是为了防范风险。JCI的记录显示,2月份物价指数跌至3938点。趋于不稳定的股票价格会影响到回报的波动性(投资者将获得的回报水平的波动)和系统性风险(与预期回报结果的偏差)。因此,本文采用e views 10的定量方法,对LQ45上随机选择的LPPF、ASII、ANTM、TLKM和bbi股票进行了2019年11月- 2020年10月的研究,所有数据均通过二次文献研究获得。从股价上看,股票收益率存在非常剧烈的波动。最低的平均股票回报波动率是在ASII股票价值-0.006264。同时,平均波动率最高的是ANTM股票0.053972。剧烈波动表明这五只股票都存在风险。LPPF、ASII、ANTM和bbi股票的贝塔值(风险)为bbb1,这意味着该股票存在风险。预期收益高于市场收益。这也符合得分最高的LPPF的标准偏差。同时,TLKM股票的贝塔值<1或股票收益的波动率低于市场收益。这意味着股票风险很小,预期收益低于市场收益。
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Analisis Volatilitas Return Saham Terhadap Risiko Sistematis Dimasa Pandemik Covid-19 pada Saham LQ 45
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a very big impact. All parts of the world are making efforts to prevent the spread of this virus, decisions to lockdown, quarantine areas, or PSBB. Which resulted in delays in the economy and financial markets. Domestic and foreign investors dispose of their funds in order to prevent risks. JCI recorded that in February the price index fell to a level of 3938. Stock prices that tend to be unstable will affect the volatility of returns (fluctuations in the level of returns that will be obtained by investors) and systematic risk (deviations from the outcome of their expected returns). Therefore, a research was conducted to examine the stocks that had been randomly selected on LQ45, namely LPPF, ASII, ANTM, TLKM, and BBRI for the period November 2019-October 2020 through quantitative methods using e views 10, where all data was obtained by secondary literature study. From the stock price, there is a very sharp stock return volatility. The lowest average stock return volatility is in ASII shares valued at -0.006264. Meanwhile, the highest average volatility is ANTM stocks 0.053972. The sharp volatility shows that all five stocks have risks. LPPF, ASII, ANTM, and BBRI stocks have a beta value (risk)> 1 which means the stock is risky. The expected return is higher than the market return. This is also in line with the standard deviation of the LPPF which scores the highest. Meanwhile, TLKM shares have a beta value <1 or the volatility of stock returns is below the market return. This means that stocks have little risk, the expected return is lower than the market return.
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