埃博拉疫情模型最优控制干预策略的分析研究

E. Grigorieva, E. Khailov
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引用次数: 3

摘要

考虑了埃博拉疫情在恒定规模人群中传播的SEIR型模型。为了控制感染的传播和预防这种流行病,我们在模型中加入了四个有界控制。其中三个项目代表了减少易感者和感染者之间、易感者和住院者之间以及易感者和掩埋者之间接触的努力。第四个控制代表埋葬的努力。我们描述了在给定的终端时间内使感染个体数量最小化的最优控制问题。利用庞特里亚金极大值原理,得到了相应的最优解。利用模型参数和控制约束的这些值,对其进行最优控制。他们的类型被发现和分析研究。本文采用了一种估计相应开关函数的零个数的方法,这种方法不同于我们以前的论文中使用的方法。结果估计使我们能够将最优控制问题简化为一个相当简单的有限维约束最小化问题。
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Analytical Study of Optimal Control Intervention Strategies for Ebola Epidemic Model
A SEIR type model for the spread of Ebola epidemic in a population of constant size is considered. In order to control the spread of infection and prevent such epidemics, we add to the model four bounded controls. Three of them represent the efforts that reduce the contact between the susceptible and infectious individuals, between the susceptible and hospitalized, and, lastly, between susceptible and buried individuals. The fourth control represents the burial efforts. We state the optimal control problem of minimizing the number of the infectious individuals at the given terminal time. The corresponding optimal solutions are obtained with the use of the Pontryagin maximum principle. Such values of the model parameters and control constraints are used, for which the optimal controls are bang-bang. Their types are found and investigated analytically. An approach for estimating the number of zeros of the corresponding switching functions, different from the one that was used in our previous papers, is applied. The resulting estimates enable us to reduce the optimal control problem to a considerably simpler problem of the finite-dimensional constrained minimization.
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