论1935年7 - 9月凯恩斯对哈罗德在IS-LM模型技术方面的潜心缓慢指导:哈罗德读了凯恩斯1935年8月27日致哈罗德的信后记后,才最终理解了凯恩斯的IS-LM模型

M. E. Brady
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引用次数: 0

摘要

1935年7月至9月间,凯恩斯花费了大量的时间和精力,试图指导哈罗德学习他的IS-LM模型的原理。凯恩斯艰苦而缓慢的尝试最终导致他绝望地在1935年8月的信中写了一个三点附言,这封信的阐述水平相当于文法学校的水平。只有在阅读了凯恩斯在文法学校水平上写的三点附言后,哈罗德才最终理解了凯恩斯的观点,即总(有效)需求、Y、利率、r、投资空间(I)和储蓄空间(S)不可能存在任何均衡,因为is曲线是(Y,r)空间中一条向下倾斜的直线。显然,这里缺少了一个等式。为了支持(r;I,S)空间中现有的古典(新古典)利率理论,哈罗德不断地采用其他条件相同的假设,即总收入Y的恒定或固定水平,这与庇古在1933年的《失业理论》中提出的其他条件相同的假设非常相似,这样他就可以应用他的马歇尔部分均衡装置。凯恩斯在《通论》(1936)第19章附录中的主要观点是,庇古没有IS-LM模型。关键问题在于,哈罗德从他1937年1月发表在《计量经济学》上的文章开始,试图掩盖凯恩斯的is - lm模型,正如他试图掩盖凯恩斯在1938年8月写给哈罗德的信件中提出的乘数-加速器模型一样。经济学家们一致认为希克斯是1937年4月在《计量经济学》上发表的is - lm模型的发明者,这只不过是一个神话,任何读过1935年8月27日和8月30日哈罗德和凯恩斯通信的经济学家都很容易将其证伪。
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On Keynes’s Painstaking Slow Instruction of Harrod on the Technical Aspects of His IS-LM Model in July-September, 1935:Harrod Only Finally Understood Keynes’s IS-LM Model After He Had Read the Postscript to Keynes’s Letter of August 27th, 1935 to Harrod
Keynes spent a tremendous amount of time and energy attempting to tutor Harrod on the mechanics of his IS-LM model between July to September, 1935. Keynes’s painstaking slow attempts finally led Keynes in desperation to write a three point postscript to his letter of August, 1935, that is written at a grammar school level of exposition. Only after reading Keynes’s three point postscript, written at a grammar school level of exposition, did Harrod finally grasp the point that Keynes was making, which is that it is impossible for there to be any equilibrium in Aggregate (Effective) Demand, Y, interest rate, r, space of Investment(I) and Savings(S) because the IS curve was a SINGLE, downward sloping line in (Y,r) space. There is ,obviously, a missing equation.

Harrod’s continual resort to ceteris paribus assumptions about a constant or fixed level of aggregate income ,Y, in order to support the existing classical (neoclassical ) theory of the rate of interest in (r;I,S ) space, is very similar to Pigou’s assumption of ceteris paribus in his 1933 The Theory of Unemployment, so that he could apply his Marshallian apparatus of partial equilibrium. Keynes’s main point in the appendix to Chapter 19 of his General Theory (1936) was that Pigou had no IS-LM model.

The critical problem is that Harrod, starting with his January,1937 Econometrica article, sought to cover up Keynes’s IS-LM model, just as he attempted to cover up Keynes’s multiplier – accelerator model provided by Keynes to Harrod in correspondence in August,1938.

The unanimous belief among economists that Hicks was the inventor of the IS-LM model in his April, 1937 Econometrica article is simply a myth that is easily falsified by any economist who reads the correspondence of August 27th and August 30th, 1935 between Harrod and Keynes.
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