欧元作为促进俄罗斯-独联体贸易和经济增长的工具

G. Shagalov., U. Kivikari, Éric Brunat
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摘要

近年来,出口一直是俄罗斯经济增长的一个重要因素,但很明显,经济增长不能继续依赖于扩大石油和其他俄罗斯传统出口产品的出口。机械和其他制成品的作用需要加强。这种出口结构调整可以在独立国家联合体(独联体)内部的市场上成功地开始,只要独联体内部现有的支付制度得到改变。作者认为,这种变化可以通过独联体成员国采用类似于欧洲支付联盟(EPU)的多边支付系统(MPS)来实现,该系统在1950年代在欧洲成功使用。拟议系统的清算货币可能是欧元,这是一种新的欧洲多国货币。在这样的角色中采用欧元将支持独联体国家与欧盟的一体化,这些国家不是欧盟成员国的候选国。俄罗斯对进一步融入欧盟和建立更广泛的欧洲经济区表示出兴趣,它应该在泛欧一体化(实际上是欧亚一体化)中扮演代理人和中间人的重要角色。
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The Euro as an Instrument for Promoting Russian‐CIS Trade and Economic Growth
Exports have been an important factor in Russian economic growth during recent years, but it is clear that growth of the economy cannot continue to depend on expanding exports of oil and other traditional Russian exportables. The role of machinery and other manufactured goods needs to increase. This restructuring of exports could successfully start on markets within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) provided that the existing system of payments inside the CIS is changed. The authors believe that such change could be achieved by introduction for CIS member countries of a multilateral payments system (MPS) similar to the European Payments Union (EPU), which was successfully used in Europe in the 1950s. The clearing currency for the proposed system could be the euro, the new multinational European currency. Adoption of the euro in such a role would support integration of CIS countries, which are not candidates for EU membership, with the European Union. Russia, which has expressed interest in further integration with the EU and in creation of a wider European Economic Area, should have an important role as an agent and middleman in pan-European, factually Eurasian, integration.
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