测试理论,祝福还是资源诅咒?自然资源对非洲政治暴力的影响

Jiaxin Han, Fusheng Feng
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引用次数: 1

摘要

由于冲突各方对自然资源的争夺及其冲突的加剧,非洲的政治冲突加剧。先前的研究表明,手机覆盖范围在这些冲突的发生中起着重要作用。本文探讨了石油储量和钻石丰度对非洲手机覆盖的影响。作者还调查了叛军是如何受到这些资源的激励而参与冲突的。使用Scobit模型(Nagler 1994)分析不平衡冲突的情况,发现该模型比Logistic模型更准确。结果表明,钻石丰富是一种资源祝福,而石油丰富是一种资源诅咒。然而,后一项发现需要在稳健性检查中更加一致,这表明不同自然资源对非洲政治冲突的影响仍然存在争议。
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Testing the Theory, Blessing or Resource Curse? The Effect of Natural Resources on Political Violence in Africa
Political conflicts in Africa have intensified due to the competition for natural resources by various conflicting parties and their conflict intensification. Previous studies have shown that cell phone coverage plays a significant role in the occurrence of these conflicts. This paper explores the impact of oil reserves and diamond abundance on cell phone coverage in Africa. The authors also investigate how rebels are motivated by these resources to engage in conflicts. The Scobit model (Nagler 1994) is used to analyse the cases of unbalanced conflict, which is found to be more accurate than the Logistic model. The results indicate that diamond abundance is a resource blessing, while oil reserves lead to a resource curse. However, the latter finding needs to be more consistent across robustness checks, suggesting that the effects of different natural resources on African political conflicts remain debatable.
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