基于多支持向量机的风电功率预测

Min Ding, Zhe Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

风电功率预测在电网调度中具有重要意义。提出了一种基于特征分类最小二乘支持向量机的短期风电预测统计模型。本文首先对某实际电厂的数据进行了分析。通过对数据的分析,发现在相同风速下存在多个功率存在不确定性。然后,为了解决这种不确定性,根据DBSCAN方法对风速和风速趋势样本进行密度聚类。将聚类结果分成几类,并利用最小二乘支持向量机对不同类别的样本进行建模。最后,通过该预测模型与未分类样本的预测效果进行了比较。仿真结果表明所设计的模型具有较高的预测功率精度。
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Wind power prediction based on multiple support vector machines
Wind power forecasting is of great significance in grid dispatching. This paper proposes a statistical model based on feature classification least squares support vector machine, which can predict short-term wind power. First of all, this paper analyzes the data of an actual power plant. After analyzing the data, it is found that there is uncertainty in the existence of multiple powers at the same wind speed. Then, in order to resolve this uncertainty, the wind speed and wind speed trend samples are density clustered according to the DBSCAN method. The clustering results are divided into several categories, and the samples of different categories are modeled by least squares support vector machines. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed prediction model is compared with that of unclassified samples through the prediction model. Simulation results show that the designed model has higher prediction power accuracy.
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