新冠肺炎疫情对电能消耗的影响

Nabeel A. Tawalbeh, Suad S. Al Mattar, Wejdan Abu Elhaija, M. Khasawneh
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摘要

新冠肺炎疫情给世界各国政府和人民带来了巨大干扰。卫生保健系统不堪重负,本已不稳定的金融市场进一步受到威胁,石油和能源市场陷入危机,经济活动严重停顿。为了在人们在家工作的同时保持网络连接,维护医院和工业设施的救生设施,可靠、负担得起的电力迫在眉睫。大流行的直接后果是,能源储量低的国家承受了巨大压力,这些国家的能源部门在2019冠状病毒病之前已经处于惊人状态,面临重大挑战。约旦是这些受影响的国家之一,到2020年4月初,电力峰值需求与2019年的平均水平相比下降了17.5%。根据获得的ARMA和ARIMA模型,对约旦2020年电力需求的影响取决于限制的持续时间和水平,如果到2020年9月中旬大流行前的条件恢复,则低估计为2.76%,如果到2020年底全球范围内的一些限制仍然有效,则高估计为7%。本文报道了2019冠状病毒病大流行对约旦能源部门的短期影响,约旦是世界上许多此类国家的典型例子。这将有助于利用突发事件和良好的规划,帮助全球能源部门保持在某种可持续的体制内。
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Impact of COVID-19 on Electric Energy Consumption
COVID-19 has been a source of great disruption to governments and people ali over the world. Health care systems have been overwhelmed, already destabilized financial markets further jeopardized, with oil and energy markets plunging into crises and economic activities coming to severe halts. To keep people connected while working from home and upholding life-saving facilities in hospitals and around industrial regimes, reliable affordable electricity is imminent. As an immediate consequence of the pandemic, much pressure has befallen countries with low-energy reserves, where the energy sectors involved had already been staggering and facing major challenges ahead of COVID-19. Jordan’s, being of these impacted countries, peak demand on electricity decreased by 17.5% by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels. Based on the ARMA and ARIMA models obtained, the impact on 2020 electricity demand in Jordan depends on the durations and levels of the confinement/s, with a low estimate of 2.76% if pre pandemic conditions return by mid-September (2020), and a high estimate of 7% if some restrictions remain in effect worldwide until the end of 2020. This article reports the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy sector in Jordan, with Jordan being a typical example of many such countries worldwide. This will help leverage contingencies and good planning that would help the energy sectors worldwide remain within some sustainable regime/s.
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