援助、政策与增长:用新数据重新审视

Shaomeng Jia, Claudia R. Williamson
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引用次数: 2

摘要

Burnside和Dollar(2000)得出结论,在健全的政策存在的情况下,援助促进增长。Easterly等人(2004)推翻了这一结果。我们用最新的数据重新审视这个备受争议的话题。我们的研究结果推翻了伯恩赛德和杜勒最初的发现,仅仅是使用了相同国家和年份的新数据。附加测试表明,原始结果主要是样本驱动的。长期样本(1962-2013年)和冷战后(1990-2013年)数据集的边际效应表明,援助可能会在任何政策水平上降低增长。总体而言,研究结果并不支持援助在良好政策的前提下对增长发挥积极作用。
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Aid, Policies and Growth: Revisiting with New Data
Burnside and Dollar (2000) conclude aid promotes growth in the presence of sound policies. Easterly et al. (2004) overturn this result. We revisit this highly debated topic with updated data. Our results overturn Burnside and Dollar’s original findings by simply using new data over the same countries and years. Additional tests indicate that the original results are mainly sample driven. Marginal effects from a long-run sample (1962-2013) and post-Cold War (1990-2013) dataset suggest aid may decrease growth at any level of policy. Collectively, the results do not support a positive role of aid on growth, conditional on good policies.
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