{"title":"建筑项目评估中的不确定性和不完全信息","authors":"P. Bowen, P. Edwards","doi":"10.1080/10293523.1985.11082237","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Deterministic methods of price forecasting and viability analysis for construction projects do not adequately cater for uncertainty and incomplmplete information. Developers and other investors in property, acting solely on the deterministic advice of professional building cost consultants (such as quantity surveyors), may make inappropriate investment decisions which are less realistic than might be considered desirable. Probabilistic methodologies, and in particular expert systems, a form of artificial intelligence, permit the explicit treatment of uncertainty and incomplete information, and the contribution of these techniques towards the assessment of risk should lead to more realistically grounded investment decisions.","PeriodicalId":126195,"journal":{"name":"The Investment Analysts Journal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1985-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Uncertainty and incomplete information in the evaluation of building projects\",\"authors\":\"P. Bowen, P. Edwards\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/10293523.1985.11082237\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Deterministic methods of price forecasting and viability analysis for construction projects do not adequately cater for uncertainty and incomplmplete information. Developers and other investors in property, acting solely on the deterministic advice of professional building cost consultants (such as quantity surveyors), may make inappropriate investment decisions which are less realistic than might be considered desirable. Probabilistic methodologies, and in particular expert systems, a form of artificial intelligence, permit the explicit treatment of uncertainty and incomplete information, and the contribution of these techniques towards the assessment of risk should lead to more realistically grounded investment decisions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":126195,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"The Investment Analysts Journal\",\"volume\":\"28 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1985-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"The Investment Analysts Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/10293523.1985.11082237\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The Investment Analysts Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10293523.1985.11082237","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Uncertainty and incomplete information in the evaluation of building projects
Deterministic methods of price forecasting and viability analysis for construction projects do not adequately cater for uncertainty and incomplmplete information. Developers and other investors in property, acting solely on the deterministic advice of professional building cost consultants (such as quantity surveyors), may make inappropriate investment decisions which are less realistic than might be considered desirable. Probabilistic methodologies, and in particular expert systems, a form of artificial intelligence, permit the explicit treatment of uncertainty and incomplete information, and the contribution of these techniques towards the assessment of risk should lead to more realistically grounded investment decisions.
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