灵活的平均通胀目标制和通胀预期:专业预测者的反应

Kristoph N. Naggert, Robert W. Rich, Joseph S. Tracy
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本评论探讨了长期通胀预期对联邦公开市场委员会2020年8月宣布转向灵活的平均通胀目定制(FAIT)制度的反应。数据表明,通胀预期分布的低端(低于2%)出现了上升趋势,在声明发布后,通胀预期在2%的目标周围得到了更强的锚定,这与货币政策框架变化的预期效果是一致的。为了提供背景,我们还包括对2012年1月联邦公开市场委员会宣布通胀目标后通胀预期反应的回顾性评估。2012年公告的教训表明,关于采用FAIT制度的结论应被视为试探性的。因此,我们还描述了数据的指标和特征,以监测未来的发展。
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Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters
This Commentary examines the response of longer-run inflation expectations to the FOMC’s August 2020 announced switch to a flexible average inflation-targeting (FAIT) regime. The data indicate an upward shift in the lower end (below 2 percent) of the distribution of inflation expectations and a stronger anchoring of expectations around the 2 percent inflation objective following the announcement, evidence that is consistent with intended effects of the change in the monetary policy framework. To provide context, we also include a retrospective assessment of the response of inflation expectations to the FOMC’s January 2012 announcement of an inflation objective. Lessons from the 2012 announcement suggest that conclusions about the adoption of the FAIT regime should be viewed as tentative. Consequently, we also describe indicators and features of the data to monitor developments going forward.
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