对称和不对称汇率风险:来自马来西亚非金融公司的证据

W. Suhaimi, H. A. Wahab, Rabihah Md. Sum
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引用次数: 2

摘要

尽管以前在发达地区发现的汇率风险敞口最小,但对马来西亚等小型开放经济体的汇率风险敞口水平的全面研究仍然很少。此外,忽略货币运动的方向会造成估计偏差,因为混合了正面和负面的风险。因此,本文考察了207家马来西亚非金融企业在总体和企业层面的对称和不对称汇率风险敞口。利用1995年至2016年的数据,小组分析发现,由于美国作为马来西亚主要贸易伙伴的强势地位,美元的变化对总股票回报的影响很大。接下来,涉及GARCH(1,1)规范回归的公司层面分析得出结论,我们的样本公司中有35.75%受到对称暴露的影响。马来西亚样本公司相对于西方经济体的较高敞口反映了马来西亚衍生品市场缺乏对冲操作和相当温和的增长。在不对称风险敞口方面,有很大比例的公司受到美元升值的显著影响。将包括两次金融危机和钉住制度在内的五个分时期纳入分析,表明各个时期的显著程度不同。该研究的详细结果为公司经理制定有效的货币风险管理战略决策提供了更好的见解。
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Symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposure: Evidence from Malaysian non-financial firms
Despite minimal exchange rate exposure previously found in developed region, comprehensive study on the level of exchange rate exposure in a small open economy such as Malaysia remains scarce. Additionally, ignoring the direction of currency movement inflicts bias in estimation due to the commingling of positive and negative exposure. Hence, this paper examines the symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposure of 207 Malaysian non-financial firms at both aggregate and firm levels. Employing data from 1995 to 2016, the panel analysis found significant aggregate stock returns exposure to changes in the USD, mainly due to the strong US position as Malaysia’s major trading partner. Next, the firm-level analysis involving regression with GARCH(1,1) specification concludes that 35.75% of our sample firms are affected by the symmetric exposure. The higher exposure of Malaysia sample firms relative to western economies reflects the lack of hedging exercises and considerably moderate growth of derivatives market in Malaysia. In term of asymmetric exposure, there are large proportions of firms significantly affected by the USD appreciation. Inclusion of five sub-periods comprising two financial crises and pegging regime into the analyses indicates different significance levels throughout the periods. The detailed results of the study offer better insights for firm manager in making strategic decisions towards effective currency exposure management.
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