核扩散威慑:欺凌vs外交

Chidiebere C. Ogbonna
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引用次数: 1

摘要

这篇文章探讨了将制裁作为一种可以阻止核扩散的手段的可行性。在与阻止核扩散有关的问题上,制裁一直是国际社会青睐的政策工具。将制裁作为一种能够遏制国家和(或)政权核野心的政策工具是基于两个主要假设。首先,人们认为,通过限制该政权获得资金的渠道,这些制裁增加了该政权渴望获得核武器的成本,从而阻碍了它进一步推进其核野心。其次,人们认为,制裁对目标政权的公民福利和福祉的影响将促使公民反抗该政权,并可能迫使其遵守制裁实施方的要求。然而,本文持不同观点,认为制裁作为单一的政策工具无法阻止核扩散。它们最多只能用来表达不满,或者向一个有核野心的政权发出不满的信号。文章的结论是,缺乏贪婪的外交是并且将继续是阻止核扩散的合理机制。关键词:威慑,外交,核扩散,政策工具,制裁
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Nuclear Proliferation Deterrence: Bullying vs Diplomacy
The article examines the plausibility of using sanctions as an instrument that can deter nuclear proliferation. Sanctions have been a favored policy tool in the arsenal of the international community, when it comes to issues relating to deterring nuclear proliferation. The adoptions of sanctions as a policy instrument that can quench the nuclear ambition of states and/or regimes are based on two main assumptions. First, it is believed that they add cost to the regime aspiring to acquire nuclear weapons, by limiting the regime’s access to finance and thus discourage it from furthering its nuclear ambition. Second, it is believed that the impact of sanctions on the welfare and well-being of the citizens of a targeted regime will prompt the citizens to rebel against the regime and perhaps force it to comply with the demands of the sanctions imposing party. This article however, took a dissimilar view and argues that sanctions as a single policy tool cannot check nuclear proliferation. At best they can be used to express discontent or signal displeasure to a regime with nuclear ambition. The article concludes that diplomacy devoid of rapacity is and will remain the plausible mechanism to deter nuclear proliferation. Keyword: Deterrence, Diplomacy, Nuclear Proliferation, Policy Tool, Sanctions
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