几何格式作为估计大流行波持续时间和峰值的概率和熵工具

H. Nieto-Chaupis
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在2020年第一季度末,大多数国家的统计数据显示,即将到来的第二波大流行开始了。2021年1月的数据显示,新感染病例快速增长。本文提出了一种基于几何的方案。在混凝土中对矩形和梯形进行了分析。由此,两个几何图形之间的关系被提取为多项式函数。本文提出了用几何变量描述大流行的结果。因此,本模型面对的是美国和印度的官方数据。从本文的结果来看,我们强烈相信熵可能是全球大流行动态的背后。
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Geometrical Schemes as Probabilistic and Entropic Tools to Estimate Duration and Peaks of Pandemic Waves
At the end of first quarter of 2020 it was seen in most countries statistics the beginning of an imminent second wave of pandemic. On January of 2021 it was seen in the data a rapid growth of new infections. In this paper, a geometry-based scheme is presented. In concrete the rectangle and trapezoid shapes are analyzed. From this, a relation between both geometries is extracted in terms of polynomial functions. The resulting characterization of a pandemic in terms of geometric variables is presented. Thus the present model is confronted with official data of USA and India. From the results of this paper, it is strongly believed that entropy might be behind of a global pandemic dynamics.
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