Simulating non-stationary congestion systems using splitting with applications to cyber security

According to the former counterterrorism czar, Richard A. Clarke (2010), our national infrastructure could be severely damaged in 15 minutes by a cyber attack. A worm attack on an Internet Protocol (IP) network is one type of attack that is possible. Such an attack would result in a non-stationary arrival process of packets on a link in the network. In this paper we present an initial use of our Optimal Splitting Technique for Rare Events (OSTRE) to simulate the congestion imposed by the worm on the link. This initial application is oriented to testing the technique in this dynamic environment and report on its use as compared with conventional simulations.