基于贸易条件的出口商品定价方法

Shijin Wang, Jiaolong Wang
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摘要

到目前为止,对中国出口商品定价方法的研究非常有限。本文提出了一个考虑风险因素和贸易条件的出口商品定价模型。具体来说,大宗出口商品的定价受成本因素、市场供求因素和风险因素等诸多因素的影响。成本因素包括生产成本和物流成本;市场供求因素是指商品价格受市场供求情况的影响;风险因素主要是指贸易条件、成本、保险和运费(CIF)或船上交货(FOB)的不同选择,会使供应商承担不同的风险。本文采用经济订单量(EOQ)模型对生产成本进行量化,采用“基价+运费指数波动”模型和“基价+燃油价格波动”模型对物流成本进行量化,并根据历史数据计算风险因素影响下的风险成本。最后,建立了基于不同贸易条件(CIF或FOB)的商品定价模型,确定了最优价格。
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Trade-terms Based Pricing Method for Export Commodity
By far, the researches on the pricing methods of export commodity from China are very limited. This paper proposes a pricing model for export commodity by taking risk factors and trade terms into account. More specifically, the pricing of bulk export commodities is affected by many factors, including cost factors, market supply and demand factors and risk factors. Cost factors include production costs and logistics costs, market supply and demand factors represent that commodity prices are affected by market supply and demand conditions, and risk factors mainly mean that different choices of trade terms, cost, insurance and freight (CIF) or free on board (FOB), will cause suppliers to bear different risks. In this paper, the economic order quantity (EOQ) model is used to quantify production costs, the "base price + freight index fluctuation" model and the "base price + fuel price fluctuation" model are used to quantify logistics costs, and the risk costs under the influence of risk factors are calculated based on historical data. Finally, a pricing model for commodities based on different trade terms (CIF or FOB) is established, and the optimal prices can be determined.
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