在标普CNX大幅上涨的情况下,印度和美国的关键宏观经济变量对印度股票回报运动的影响

B. Nikita, P. Balasubramanian, Lakshmi Yermal
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引用次数: 7

摘要

股市被称为印度经济的晴雨表;它是国家经济状况的指标。许多研究已经建立了印度股票收益与黄金价格、油价、汇率等宏观经济变量之间的关系。本研究考察了印度股票收益与宏观经济变量(印度利率、美国利率、印度通货膨胀率、美国通货膨胀率、印度GDP增长率、美国GDP增长率)之间的关系。所有宏观经济变量的季度数据采集时间为2000年1月至2015年12月。采用回归模型对数据进行分析,对变量进行平稳性、序列相关性、异方差和正态性检验。研究发现,印度和美国的GDP增长率是标普CNX Nifty回报率的重要预测指标。
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Impact of key macroeconomic variables of India and USA on movement of the Indian stock return in case of S&P CNX nifty
The stock market is referred as the barometer of Indian economy; it is the indicator of the country's economic condition. Many studies have established the relationship between Indian stock returns and macro economic variables such as gold price, oil price, exchange rate, etc. This study investigates the relationship between the Indian stock returns and the Macro economic variables viz interest rate of India, interest rate of USA, inflation rate of India, inflation rate of USA, GDP growth rate of India and GDP growth rate of USA. Quarterly data was collected for a period from January, 2000 to December, 2015 for all the macro economic variables. Regression Model was used to analyze the data, the variables were tested for stationarity, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and normality. The study found that the GDP growth rate of India and USA are the significant predictors of S&P CNX Nifty return.
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