Generating actionable predictive models of academic performance

The pervasive collection of data has opened the possibility for educational institutions to use analytics methods to improve the quality of the student experience. However, the adoption of these methods faces multiple challenges particularly at the course level where instructors and students would derive the most benefit from the use of analytics and predictive models. The challenge lies in the knowledge gap between how the data is captured, processed and used to derive models of student behavior, and the subsequent interpretation and the decision to deploy pedagogical actions and interventions by instructors. Simply put, the provision of learning analytics alone has not necessarily led to changing teaching practices. In order to support pedagogical change and aid interpretation, this paper proposes a model that can enable instructors to readily identify subpopulations of students to provide specific support actions. The approach was applied to a first year course with a large number of students. The resulting model classifies students according to their predicted exam scores, based on indicators directly derived from the learning design.