Regional Sensitivity Analysis Applied To Train Traffic Rescheduling in Case of Power Shortage

The present work addresses train traffic rescheduling that is needed when an electric incident limits the power available for train traction. This is a difficult process of prime importance and we propose a decision-support tool to help the operator. The railway network is a complex multi-physics dynamic system, with many operational constraints, and its simulation is expensive. This makes the management of an incident difficult. The proposed approached applies regional sensitivity in order to study the influence of the different adjustment variables (train delays, speed references …) on traffic quality indicators and operational constraints (catenary voltage, for example). The analysis is divided in two parts: Monte Carlo filtering for factor mapping (qualitative analysis), and two samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for prioritization and fixing factors (quantitative analysis). The results provide information about the behavior of the system and the influence of the different traffic adjustment variables, and help reorganizing the train traffic in an optimal way. As a result of the analysis, we obtain a set of feasible solutions that are organized according to different performance criteria. Pareto-optimal front are plotted in order to guide the decisionmaker. The proposed approach is illustrated for a simple case representative of suburban traffic.